Coronavirus - 23rd May 2021

• Dr Jenny Harries tells the BBC the "straightforward message" is "get your second dose"
  
• She was speaking after data showed two doses of Pfizer and AZ vaccines are effective against the Indian variant
  
• But both vaccines are only 33% effective against the Indian variant three weeks after the first dose
  
• Health Secretary Matt Hancock says he's "increasingly confident" restrictions in England can end on 21 June
  
• But Home Secretary Priti Patel warns it is not "green light all the way"
  
• Labour urges the government to put all "amber" countries onto the travel "red list" for a short period
  
• Former adviser Dominic Cummings repeats claim that government's original plan was "herd immunity"
  
• But that is denied by Priti Patel - who says it was "absolutely not" the policy
  
• The UK reported another six Covid deaths on Saturday, and 2,694 more cases
  
• From today, most people travelling from the UK are not allowed to enter Germany because of variant concerns
  

• The Pfizer and AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccines are highly effective against the Indian variant after two doses, a study has found
  
• Health Secretary Matt Hancock says the findings make him "increasingly confident" the government will be able to lift restrictions in England on 21 June
  
• The UK reported six Covid deaths on Saturday, and another 2,694 cases
  
• Data on Saturday also showed England has surpassed 50 million vaccine doses - 31,546,846 people have had their first jab, while 18,699,556 have had two
  
• India's government has instructed social media companies to remove any content that refers to the "Indian variant" of Covid-19
  
• And Glastonbury organisers have made their live-stream concert free to watch after technical issues meant thousands of ticketholders were unable to access the show
  

Government's original plan was to let Covid spread - Cummings

Lifting of all restrictions on 21 June 'not a certainty'

Herd immunity policy 'absolutely not' true says Priti Patel

This is me (Kitkat) commenting now, in my own words - on something I felt very strongly about at the time):

What is the coronavirus delay phase?

Fergus Walsh - Medical correspondent
The UK is expected to move to the delay phase of its coronavirus response. But what does that mean? And why - Jean Wright and John Barcroft want to know - has it not already been implemented?
It means further measures to try to reduce the spread and to lower the peak of any epidemic in the UK and it’s an acknowledgement that this virus cannot be contained.
We're not going to see the sort of drastic measures we've seen in Italy and in China in terms of lockdowns and shutdowns and mass school closures.
That’s because the government says they are being led by the science. They say they have to balance how much that would help reduce the spread against the impact on society and the economy.
The sort of things we will see will be advice to the elderly and vulnerable to protect themselves by avoiding crowded and enclosed spaces. There's a lot of emphasis on hand washing. People with cold and flu-like symptoms within the next few days may be asked to self-isolate for a week.
But restrictions on gatherings and that sort of thing - I don’t think we’re going to see just yet.

UK ministers and scientists gather for emergency meetingUK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is hosting an emergency meeting with some of the country's chief scientists this afternoon.
Mr Johnson is expected to sign off plans to move from the "containment" phase of the outbreak to "delay" - basically steps to slow the spread of the virus through the population.
Ahead of the meeting one attendee, Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, called for the cancellation of mass gatherings of 500 people or more.
Read more on how the UK could respond here.

The coronavirus podcast: What is herd immunity?

BBC News brings you the latest on the global coronavirus outbreak, featuring correspondents and expert guests.
In this edition, the BBC's Fergus Walsh, James Gallagher and Tulip Mazumdar compare the UK government's coronavirus strategy with others in the rest of the world.
Listen here.

More than 200 scientists have written to the government urging them to introduce tougher measures to tackle the spread of Covid-19.
In an open letter , a group of 229 scientists from UK universities say the government's current approach will put the NHS under additional stress and "risk many more lives than necessary".
The signatories also criticised comments made by Sir Patrick Vallance, the government's chief scientific adviser, about managing the spread of the infection to make the population immune.
The Department of Health said Sir Patrick's comments had been misinterpreted.
In their letter the scientists also questioned the government's view that people will become fed up with restrictions if they were imposed too soon.
Their letter was published on the day it was announced 10 more people in the UK have died after testing positive for coronavirus, bringing the total number of deaths to 21.
Meanwhile the government's scientific advisory group for emergencies (Sage) advised that measures to protect vulnerable people - including household isolation - "will need to be instituted soon".
Sir Patrick and the UK's chief medical adviser, Prof Chris Whitty, have said they intend to publish the computer models on which their strategy is based.

• UK virus measures will have the 'biggest impact'
  
• Why is the UK not shutting schools like other countries?
  
• Three reasons why the UK might not follow Italy
  

The UK's approach to coping with the coronavirus pandemic has been in stark contrast to other countries. The whole of Italy has been on lockdown since Tuesday , while Poland is set to close its borders for two weeks.
On Saturday the French government ordered the closure of all non-essential public locations from midnight (23:00 GMT Saturday).
And Spain has declared a 15-day national lockdown on Monday to battle the virus,

Measures 'insufficient'

In the open letter the group of scientists argue that stronger "social distancing measures" would "dramatically" slow the rate of growth of the disease in the UK, and would spare "thousands of lives".
The group, specialising in a range of disciplines, ranging from mathematics to genetics, though no leading experts in the science of the spread of diseases, said the current measures are "insufficient" and "additional and more restrictive measures should be taken immediately", as is happening in other countries.
Enlarge this image Click to see fullsize


On Friday Sir Patrick suggested managing the spread of the disease so that the population gains some immunity to the disease was a part of the government strategy.This idea, known as "herd immunity", means at-risk individuals are protected from infection because they are surrounded by people who are resistant to the disease.
Rough estimates indicate that herd immunity to Covid-19 would be reached when approximately 60% of the population has had the disease.
But in the open letter, the scientists said: "Going for 'herd immunity' at this point does not seem a viable option."

'Laissez-faire attitude'

The major downside of herd immunity, according to Birmingham University's Prof Willem van Schaik, is that this will mean that in the UK alone at least 36 million people will need to be infected and recover.
"It is almost impossible to predict what that will mean in terms of human costs, but we are conservatively looking at tens of thousands of deaths, and possibly at hundreds of thousands of deaths," he said.
"The only way to make this work would be to spread out these millions of cases over a relatively long period of time so that the NHS does not get overwhelmed."
Prof van Schaik noted that the UK is the only country in Europe that is following what he described as its "laissez-faire attitude to the virus".
But a Department of Health and Social care spokesperson said that Sir Patrick's comments had been misinterpreted.
"Herd immunity is not part of our action plan, but is a natural by-product of an epidemic. Our aims are to save lives, protect the most vulnerable, and relieve pressure on our NHS," he said.
"We have now moved out of the contain phase and into delay, and we have experts working round the clock. Every measure that we have or will introduce will be based on the best scientific evidence.
"Our awareness of the likely levels of immunity in the country over the coming months will ensure our planning and response is as accurate and effective as possible."

In a separate letter to the government , more than 200 behavioural scientists have questioned the government's argument that starting tougher measures too soon would lead to people not sticking to them just at the point that the epidemic is at its height.
"While we fully support an evidence-based approach to policy that draws on behavioural science, we are not convinced that enough is known about 'behavioural fatigue' or to what extent these insights apply to the current exceptional circumstances," the letter said.
"Such evidence is necessary if we are to base a high-risk public health strategy on it."
"In fact, it seems likely that even those essential behaviour changes that are presently required (e.g., handwashing) will receive far greater uptake the more urgent the situation is perceived to be. Carrying on as normal for as long as possible undercuts that urgency," it added.
The scientists said "radical behaviour change" could have a "much better" effect and could "save very large numbers of lives".
"Experience in China and South Korea is sufficiently encouraging to suggest that this possibility should at least be attempted," it added.
The second letter called on the government to reconsider its stance on "behavioural fatigue" and to share the evidence on which it based this stance.

Which is the best course of action?

Hugh Schofield - BBC News, Paris
Debate is raging in France about what is the better model for tackling Covid-19: the Chinese with their radical system of confinement for limiting the spread; or the UK with their “herd immunity” approach, according to which infection of a majority is inevitable – and even, if properly handled, to be welcomed.
Up until a couple of days ago, it seemed France leaned more to the “herd” philosophy. Like in Britain, the official view favoured a controlled propagation - buying time so that the wave of infections is drawn out over a long period, and hospitals are not overwhelmed.
But now suddenly, there is a shift in the other direction. First schools, then cafés, restaurants and allnon-essential shops are to be closed . It seems the government now thinks Chinese- and Italian-style draconianism is more appropriate - except when it comes to the municipal elections, which are going ahead as planned.
If it all feels a little improvised, that is perhaps excusable. We have after all never seen anything like this before.

The Papers: 'On course for freedom day'

• See all the front pages here
  

Test and Trace boss casts doubt on Cummings' claims

'Not green light all the way' for 21 June unlocking - Patel

Herd immunity was 'absolutely not' government's Covid policy - Patel

How many home quarantines went unchecked?

Did Johnson overrule Patel on closing borders last year?

Herd immunity has been 'misinterpreted' - Dr Harries

India reports nearly 9,000 cases of Covid-linked 'black fungus'

• Read more here
  

New variant found in Yorkshire 'under investigation'

What's been happening?

• The boss of NHS Test and Trace boss, Dr Jenny Harries, says everyone should get a second dose of coronavirus vaccine
  
• Her call comes after a study showing two doses of Pfizer or AstraZeneca vaccines are "highly effective" against the Indian variant - but both are only 33% effective three weeks after the first dose
  
• Health Secretary Matt Hancock says he's "increasingly confident" restrictions in England can end on 21 June - but Home Secretary Priti Patel warns it is not "green light all the way"
  
• Labour is urging the government to put all "amber" countries onto the travel "red list" for a short period
  
• The PM's ex-adviser, Dominic Cummings, claims the government's original plan to tackle coronavirus was to let it spread through the population to achieve "herd immunity"
  
• But Priti Patel says this was "absolutely not" the policy
  

How forward-planning helped rural district ride India's second wave

Amber countries should be green for the fully vaccinated - airline industry chief

Analysis: What is herd immunity?

France could restrict UK travel over Indian variant fears

German football fans 'back in the stadium in August'

What does Germany's ban on most UK travellers mean?

UK reports five more deaths

Weekly positive cases up 11% in the UK

Summary

• A recent analysis shows the Pfizer vaccine was 88% effective against symptomatic disease from the India variant two weeks after a second dose, compared with 93% effectiveness against the Kent strain. Less convincingly, the AstraZeneca jab was 60% effective, compared with 66% against the Kent variant over the same period.
  

• India is trying to save scarce Covid vaccines by delaying shots for those who have recovered from the disease, the head of a government panel said. Without issuing a full mea culpa on anybody’s behalf, he added that the campaign should not have been opened to all adults before covering the most vulnerable.
  

• Some teenagers and young adults who received Covid-19 vaccines have experienced heart inflammation, a US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention advisory group said, recommending further study of the rare condition.
  

• Boris Johnson’s former chief of staff Dominic Cummings has claimed that ministers backed a policy of “herd immunity” then lied about having done so, but home secretary Priti Patel denied the claims despite a number of reports suggesting it was at least under consideration.
  

• A coronavirus outbreak on Mount Everest has infected at least 100 climbers and support staff, a mountaineering guide said, giving the first comprehensive estimate amid official Nepalese denials that the disease has spread to the world’s highest peak.
  

• A leading Bangladesh journalist critical of the government’s pandemic response has been granted bail, after her detention sparked nationwide protests.
  

• Israel reopened its borders to foreign tourists after a fall in Covid infections but cautioned it would take time for visitors to start arriving and revive the tourism industry.
  

Glasgow's Covid level could drop if ICU numbers do not rise

Vaccine bus at Anfield before Liverpool match

What's been happening today?

• The possibility of all coronavirus restrictions being lifted in England next month is "looking good", says chief executive of the UK Health Security Agency Dr Jenny Harries, after a study showed the two major UK vaccines were effective against the Indian variant
  
• Two jabs of either Pfizer or Oxford-AZ vaccine give a similar level of protection against symptomatic disease from the Indian variant as they do for the Kent one
  
• Dr Harries urged people to get their second dose and said the public should remain cautious to avoid another lockdown
  
• More than 60 million coronavirus vaccine doses have been given in the UK, the health secretary has announced. Matt Hancock said Saturday was a "huge day" with 762,361 first or second jabs given, the second highest daily total since the rollout started
  
• Home Secretary Priti Patel has denied claims, made by the PM's former aide Dominic Cummings, that the government pursued a herd immunity policy early in the pandemic
  
• Covid restrictions in Glasgow - which is currently under the strictest rules in Scotland - could be eased if the number of people in intensive care does not go up, Scotland's health secretary has said
  
• The UK has reported five more Covid deaths, and 2,235 more cases
  

Thank you for reading

Today's writers were Victoria Lindrea, Jen Meierhans, and Lauren Turner, and the editor was Owen Amos.