Russian invasion of Ukraine: Day 646

Summary for Friday, 1st December 2023 - DAY 646

Good morning

• The Ukrainian military shot down 18 out of 25 attack drones launched by Russia in its latest overnight strike, authorities have said.
  
  
• Kyiv’s air force also reported destroying one out of two cruise missiles that had been launched.
  There were no immediate reports of damage from the attack, which officials said was launched from south-western Russia and Russian-occupied Crimea and was aimed primarily at eastern and southern Ukraine.
  
  
• President Volodymyr Zelenskiy called for faster construction of fortifications in key sectors under pressure from Russian forces, particularly in eastern Ukraine, a focal point of Moscow’s advances, 21 months into its invasion. Zelenskiy issued his appeal after touring Ukrainian frontline positions in the north-east. “This of course means the greatest attention to the Avdiivka, Maryinka and other sectors in Donetsk region. In Kharkiv region, this means the Kupiansk sector and the Kupiansk-Lyman line,” he said in his nightly video address.
  
  
• Hungary will not support any EU proposal to begin talks on making Ukraine a member of the bloc, a government minister said. Gergely Gulyas, the chief of staff to the Hungarian prime minister, Viktor Orbán, said at a news conference in Budapest that it was premature to begin formal talks with Kyiv, and that Hungary would not consent to opening the discussions when EU leaders meet in mid-December.
  
  
• The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) detonated explosives on a railway line in Siberia that Russia uses for military supplies, a Ukrainian source told Reuters. The source, who declined to be identified, said four explosive devices were detonated overnight as a cargo train was moving through the Severomuysky tunnel in Buryatia region, which borders Mongolia. Russian sources acknowledged that a train had caught fire in the area, but made no mention of explosives.
  
  
• Across the east and south of Ukraine, six people were killed in a spate of Russian attacks, with three more still missing, local officials said on Thursday. In the Kherson region, authorities said Russian shelling had killed three people in the village of Sadove. Two people were killed and three more, including a child, were trapped under rubble in the eastern Donetsk region after simultaneous Russian strikes on three towns, Ukraine’s emergency services said. An evening attack on the town of Toretsk in the eastern Donetsk region also killed one and injured two, the local prosecutor’s office said.
  
  
• The US has been working with Ukraine to prepare for Russia’s expected winter attack, including helping to provide equipment and supplies to keep people from losing heat and electricity, said White House national security spokesperson John Kirby. He said the US expected Russia would try to destroy Ukraine’s critical energy infrastructure this winter.
  
  
• Ukraine’s human rights commissioner accused Russia of refusing to agree new exchanges of prisoners of war after a stretch of three months in which no swaps have been reported. “All the initiatives, desires and actions of Ukraine regarding the return of our defenders from captivity are met by a Russian unwillingness to return its citizens,” Dmytro Lubinets said. He added that Russian prisoners held in Ukraine had expressed a wish to be exchanged. “No one from the Russian side wants to take them back,” he said.
  
  
• EU countries are digging in against parts of the commission’s latest proposed sanctions on Russia, namely the so-called “no Russia clause”, retaliatory financial limits and enforcing sanctions on goods for personal use, six sources told Reuters. Some member states, which the sources declined to identify, say the new proposal goes too far and would backfire on EU global trade and ultimately fail in its aims.
  
  
• Zelenskiy held phone calls with three European leaders; German chancellor Olaf Scholz, British prime minister Rishi Sunak and Bulgarian prime minister Nikolay Denkov. “I have a lot to thank our partners for,” Zelenskiy said. “Our agreements … are all being implemented. We have also outlined new joint steps.”
  
  
• The Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, told a meeting of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) that the west was killing any chances of reviving the grouping, which he said was on the brink of collapse. Speaking in Skopje, the capital of North Macedonia, at a meeting which Ukraine and some of its allies had boycotted, Lavrov said: “There are no particular reasons for optimism at present. The OSCE is essentially being turned into an appendage of Nato and the European Union.
  
  
• The European Union should take Ukraine’s military needs into account as it determines the future strategy of Europe’s defence industry, the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, said. “Our strategy can only be complete if it also takes into account Ukraine’s needs and Ukraine’s industrial capacity,” von der Leyen said in a speech at the annual conference of the European Defence Agency.
  

Russians attack on several fronts and suffer losses near Avdiivka

A total of 82 combat clashes took place at the front on 30 November.

• In the area of responsibility of the Pivnich (North) Operational Strategic Group on the Sivershchyna and Slobozhanshchyna fronts, Russian forces are maintaining their military presence in the border areas, conducting intense sabotage activities in order to prevent the redeployment of Ukrainian troops to threatened fronts, and increasing the density of mine barriers along the state border in Belgorod Oblast.
  
  
• In the area of responsibility of the Khortytsia Operational Strategic Group on the Kupiansk front, Russian forces, with the support of aviation, conducted assault operations in the areas of Synkivka and northeast of Petropavlivka in Kharkiv Oblast, as well as Stelmakhivka in Luhansk Oblast, where Ukraine’s Defence Forces repelled seven attacks.
  
  
• On the Lyman front, Ukrainian soldiers repelled six attacks in the areas of Serebrianka forest in Luhansk Oblast and Torske in Donetsk Oblast, where Ukraine’s Defence Forces repelled six attacks.
  
  
• On the Bakhmut front, Russian forces conducted assault operations near Bohdanivka, Andriivka, and Klishchiivka in Donetsk Oblast, where Ukraine’s Defence Forces repelled 24 attacks. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s Defence Forces are continuing their assault operations south of Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast, inflicting losses in manpower and equipment on the Russians and consolidating their own positions.
  
  
• In the area of responsibility of the Tavriia Operational Strategic Group on the Avdiivka front, Russian forces, with the support of aviation,  continue their attempts to surround Avdiivka. Ukrainian soldiers are firmly holding the defence, inflicting significant losses on the Russians. Russian offensive operations near Stepove, Novokalynove,  Avdiivka,  Tonenke, Sevierne, and Pervomaiske in Donetsk Oblast were unsuccessful. Ukraine’s Defence Forces repelled 20 attacks there.
  
  
• On the Marinka front, Russian forces, with the support of aviation, conducted unsuccessful assault operations near Marinka and Novomykhailivka in Donetsk Oblast. Ukraine’s Defence Forces repelled 10 attacks there.
  
  
• Russian forces did not conduct any offensive (assault) operations on the Shakhtarsk front.
  
  
• On the Zaporizhzhia front, Russian forces unsuccessfully tried to restore their lost position near the settlement of Robotyne in Zaporizhzhia Oblast 11 times. In addition, Ukrainian defenders repelled four Russian attacks west of Verbove in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. 
  

• In the area of responsibility of the Odesa Operational Strategic Group on the Kherson front, Ukrainian defenders continue to hold their positions on the left bank of the Dnipro River, conducting counter-battery operations and striking the enemy’s rear."
  

Russia says dual Russian-Italian national arrested for train bombing on behalf of Ukraine

SBU strikes again: Another train blown up on critical Russia-China railway

The attack marks the second phase of a special operation conducted by the Security Service of Ukraine to disrupt the crucial railway line, sources have told Kyiv Post.

Boeing-737 with 422 passengers on board crash-lands in Russia

An Aeroflot Boeing-737 made an emergency landing in Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, while flying from Moscow.

• The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) gave the Russian Federation a "red flag" rating for flight safety. There are only four nations with a "red flag" in the world: Bhutan, Congo, Liberia, and Russia. Such an evaluation points to significant declines in Russian aviation safety.
  
  
• Foreign aircraft account for about 70% of the Russian Federation's civilian fleet, which handles 95% of all air traffic. The Russian air fleet has decreased from approximately 900 aircraft in early 2022 to less than 800 aircraft in just one year. The industry will decline with the departure of Western aircraft. Russia has only 150 passenger aircraft of their own production, but there are numerous issues with these.
  
  
• Airlines face a choice: disassemble aircraft into parts or use non-original parts, risking safety. Lack of insurance and problems with spare parts complicate the operation of aircraft.
  
  
• The situation turned out to be so acute that the Russian Federation's Ministry of Transport approved every asset for repairing foreign aircraft, including the use of third-party parts. At least 50 aircraft, or 25% of the total fleet of the biggest airline Aeroflot, are grounded due to a shortage of spare parts.
  

Deaths after first heavy snowfall of winter hits eastern Europe

Russia’s navy on Friday destroyed an uncrewed Ukrainian navy vessel heading towards Crimea, the defence ministry said

Pictures of the destroyed fences around the Crimean bridge appeared online

Russian court extends pre-trial detention of American journalist

Slovak truckers to blockade Ukraine border crossing

Russian Commander killed by own landmine in Ukraine

Covering Up?

High-Profile Deaths

Russian attack on Novohrodivka: 2 more bodies retrieved from under rubble

A search and rescue operation has been ongoing in the city of Novohrodivka, Donetsk Oblast, where two more bodies have been retrieved from under the rubble.

Russia imported over 100,000 Asian migrants to Donbas, plans to create cross-border commonwealth

Moscow plans to replace the local population in the occupied territories and to create a cross-border commonwealth of mixed Russian and Ukrainian regions.

Rail havoc in Russia after second explosion in as many days destroys key ‘Devil’s Bridge’

Another fuel train explosion on Russia’s Baikal-Amur Mainline signals the second phase of a strategic operation by Ukraine’s SBU to disrupt this vital railway route, sources told NV.

Russian troops say they’re starving, sent to slaughter

Recent estimates suggest that, particularly resulting from so-called “meat assaults” on the Ukrainian stronghold of Avdiivka, Russian troops are now being killed at rates comparable to World War I.

A new video shows Russian troops complaining that their commanders send them to slaughter and leave the wounded to rot rather than issue evacuation orders.
The video, shared on X, formerly known as Twitter, by Anton Gerashchenko, advisor to Ukraine’s Interior Ministry, shows a group of Russian soldiers sitting in cramped quarters and complaining about their commanders and their provisions.

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1730549560127156581?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1730549560127156581%7Ctwgr%5E18792a9ddacb0883660f79056edfd081f37cd7c7%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.kyivpost.com%2Fpost%2F24932

A soldier in the video says that he found a can of stewed meat, diluted it with water from the Dnipro River and drank it for a week so as not to starve to death.
Furthermore, the Russian soldiers say that they have no documentary evidence that they are even at war and that they buy everything at their own expense – including, food, medicine and uniforms.
“And yet, no thoughts of getting out of Ukraine and refusing to participate in the war,” Gerashchenko writes.

While it’s difficult to be certain of the numbers, secret Pentagon estimates of Russian Federation losses, entering the public domain in April 2023 via the Discord gamer network, put Russian casualties at that time at about 40,000 dead and 110,000 severely wounded.
The Ukrainian open-source claim a month later, was some 25 percent more than the US internal estimate.
Meanwhile, daily Russian losses from so-called “meat assaults” on Avdiivka are approaching World War I levels. Imperial Russia lost about 1.8 million soldiers, or on average 1,100 men a day during World War I. Today it is losing approximately 900 soldiers every 24 hours and sometimes more.
The video seems to further confirm intercepted calls that show parts of the Russian army are poorly provisioned, badly motivated and generally treated as cannon fodder.
“They just brought us in, threw us out in the woods and told us to dig and not to go anywhere from this strip because a bird [drone] might fly in and drop something on our heads” a Russian prisoner of war told Kyiv Post in an interview.

A double train explosion on a key railway in Russia’s Far East was reportedly orchestrated by Ukrainian intelligence

On the night of November 29, a train car caught fire while traveling through the Severomuysky Tunnel on the Baikal–Amur Mainline railroad (BAM) in Russia’s Republic of Buryatia.
Official sources in Russia have not reported the cause of the incident; Ukrainian media, however, citing sources in the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU), have reported that the explosion was a Ukrainian intelligence operation. CNN, citing its own SBU sources, also reported that the agency was behind the blast.

After the fire, Russian Railways, Russia’s state-owned railway company, announced that the other trains scheduled to go through the tunnel had been rerouted. Soon after that, however, Russian Telegram channels and Ukrainian media reported that another train had exploded on the detour route. Exactly when the second explosion occurred is unclear, but according to SBU sources who spoke to Ukraine’s public broadcaster, Suspilne, an explosive device was planted on the bypass bridge and detonated when the train was passing over it. The Ukrainian outlet Hromadske and BBC News Ukrainian also reported this version of events, with the BBC quoting one of its sources as saying the second train “fell into the SBU’s trap.”

An article about the blast published Thursday by news outlet Ukrainska Pravda called the BAM “essentially the only significant railroad route between Russia and China,” noting that it’s used to transport military supplies. Sources who spoke to Suspilne added that the explosion was the “second step in the SBU’s special operation” to disable the key thoroughfare. “Russia’s intelligence agencies need to get used to the fact that our people are everywhere. Even in distant Buryatia,” a source told Ukrainska Pravda after the second explosion.

The bridge on the Baikal–Amur Mainline railroad’s detour route around the Severomuysky Tunnel is raised 35 meters (115 feet) from the ground / UFD

After the first explosion, the Russian Investigative Committee opened a terrorism case against “unidentified persons,” according to Kommersant. “Preliminary findings indicate that the tanker fire resulted from the detonation of an unidentified explosive device that was presumably located beneath the railcar,” said the newspaper’s source.
The Telegram channel Baza reported that the tunnel fire left one tanker car completely destroyed and two others with punctures. According to the channel Mash, a makeshift explosive device was found at the site of the blast. The bridge explosion, meanwhile, left four tankers completely burned and two damaged by fire, Baza said, without citing any sources.

It’s unclear whether anybody was injured in the fires. After the tunnel fire, the East Siberian Transport Prosecutor’s Office announced it was conducting an investigation into a “train car fire,” adding that nobody was injured.
Neither the Russian authorities nor Russian Railways have commented on the second explosion.

Closing Summary

• Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy told The Associated press that “winter as a whole is a new phase of war” and acknowledged that “we did not achieve the desired results” with the summer counteroffensive.
  
  
• The Ukrainian leader also said that “we already can see the consequences of the international community shifting (attention) because of the tragedy in the Middle East”.
  
  
• The situation on the Polish-Ukrainian border remained tense, with Ukrainian truckers stuck on the border saying they plan to launch a hunger strike if their demands are not met. Polish and Ukrainian officials agreed on measures designed to help ease the situation at border crossings blocked by Polish truckers, but did not address the protesting Polish truckers’ main demands.
  
  
• Slovak truckers said they would start blocking a border crossing with Ukraine.
  
  
• The Ukrainian military shot down 18 out of 25 attack drones launched by Russia in its latest overnight strike, authorities said.
  
  
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Moscow saw no signs that Kyiv was ready to move towards a political resolution and that there was no reason for Russia to change the goals of its “special military operation”.
  
  
• Russian investigators said a dual Russian-Italian national had been detained for planting bombs on railway tracks as part of a sabotage campaign orchestrated by Ukrainian military intelligence.
  
  
• A court in Russia has extended the detention of Russian-American journalist Alsu Kurmasheva until February 5.
  
  
• Russia’s navy destroyed an uncrewed Ukrainian navy vessel heading towards Crimea, the defence ministry said.
  
  
• Heavy snowfall and blizzards across eastern European countries this week have resulted in a number of deaths and left thousands of towns and villages without electricity, after the first major cold snap of the season.
  
  
• Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán said he opposes even putting the issue of opening EU accession talks with Ukraine on the agenda. The matter is set to be discussed at a major summit of European leaders later this month.