Russian invasion of Ukraine: Day 691

Summary for Monday, 15th January 2024 - DAY 691

• Ukraine pushed ahead with its peace formula to end nearly two years of war with Russia with a meeting of national security advisers from around the world in Davos on Sunday. Andriy Yermak, the Ukrainian president’s chief of staff, posted photos of the meeting’s opening and hailed a “good sign” that the number of participants in a string of conferences on Zelenskiy’s peace formula was growing; nearly half from Europe, as well as 18 from Asia and 12 from Africa. “Countries from the global south are increasingly getting involved in our work. It shows understanding that this European conflict is in fact a challenge for all humanity,” he wrote.
  
  
• President Volodymyr Zelenskiy will travel to Switzerland on Monday, his office said, as Ukraine tries to ensure stable support from allies as the war against Russia nears its second anniversary. Zelenskiy is due to “meet the heads of both houses of parliament, party leaders and the president of Switzerland, participate in the World Economic Forum” in Davos, said a statement from the presidency on Sunday.
  
  
• China needs to be involved in efforts to end the war between Ukraine and Russia, Switzerland’s co-chair of the Davos meeting Ignazio Cassis told a news conference after a session.
  
  
• France and Germany reaffirmed their support for Ukraine for as long as needed in its war with Russia. “We are in full agreement … that we must support the Ukrainians for as long as necessary,” the French foreign minister, Stéphane Séjourné, told journalists in Berlin, alongside the German foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock. Baerbock said they would remain “on the side of Ukraine as long as necessary, until Russia has withdrawn” from Ukrainian territory. Newly appointed Séjourné met Zelenskiy in Kyiv on Saturday on his first official visit abroad, vowing that Paris would maintain its support. “Despite the multiplying crises, Ukraine is and will remain France’s priority,” Séjourné told Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, at a joint news conference earlier. Zelenskiy said he and Séjourné had discussed Ukraine’s defence needs including joint production of drones and artillery.
  
  
• Russian billionaire Oleg Deripaska said on Sunday in a Telegram post there was unlikely to be peace in Ukraine until at least May 2025, and constructive discussion at Davos on ending the conflict would not be possible because no Russian delegation would attend.
  
  
• The North Korean foreign minister, Choe Son-hui, will visit Russia from Monday to Wednesday at the invitation of her counterpart Sergei Lavrov, the North’s KCNA news agency said.
  
  
• Ukrainians are being urged to create drones for the military at home as part of the “People’s Drone” project. Participants can take a free engineering course to teach themselves how to assemble a 7in FPV (first-person-view) drone at home.
  
  
• Denmark will allocate a new $21m (£16.5m) aid package to Ukraine for the restoration of the southern Ukrainian city of Mykolaiv. The assistance package, among other things, includes projects for demining agricultural land and reconstructing the dormitory of the Mykolaiv State Agrarian University.
  
  
• In its latest defence intelligence update, the UK Ministry of Defence said the impact of the war with Ukraine on healthcare in Russia was “highly likely” being felt by Russia’s civilian population as they struggled to access hospital services and experience shortages of medical products due to treatment of wounded personnel.
  
  
• A prominent liberal priest faces expulsion from the Russian Orthodox church for refusing to read out a prayer asking God to guide Russia to victory over Ukraine. In a verdict, a church court said Aleksiy Uminsky should be “expelled from holy orders” for violating his priestly oath.
  

UK to send 20,000 troops to largest Nato exercise since the cold war

We are in a new era and we must be prepared to deter our enemies, prepared to lead our allies and prepared to defend our nation whenever the call comes.
Today our adversaries are busily rebuilding their barriers, old enemies are reanimated, battle lines are being redrawn, the tanks are literally on Ukraine’s lawn and the foundations of the world order are being shaken to their core. We stand at a crossroads.

Russian air defence systems destroyed three Ukraine-launched Tochka-U missiles (short-range tactical ballistic missiles) over south-west Russia’s Kursk region early on Monday

Russia has handed a five-year sentence to a 20-year-old student for allegedly working with Ukrainian special services and planning sabotage attacks on military bases

Ukraine says it has shot down a Russian spy plane and command aircraft

 Ukraine’s Air Force destroyed an enemy A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft and an enemy IL-22 air control centre. I am grateful to the Air Force for the perfectly planned and executed operation in the Azov Sea region!

Explosions reported at one of Russia's largest chemical plants

Russia has likely 'substantially inflated' troop numbers, UK's MoD says

On 11 January 2023, Russian deputy chair of the security council, Dmitri Medvedev, stated that 500,000 people had joined the Russian armed forces in 2023. It is highly likely that this figure has been substantially inflated.
In efforts to meet recruitment targets, the Russian military has since April 2023 allowed school-leavers to sign contracts with the Russian army. Recent data published by Mediazona and the BBC Russian service suggests that at least five Russians born in 2005 have died in the conflict.

Reuters has the full writeup from the speech made earlier by the UK defence secretary, Grant Shapps:

In five years’ time, we could be looking at multiple theatres including Russia, China, Iran and North Korea. Ask yourself … is it more likely that that number grows or reduces? I suspect we all know the answer. It’s likely to grow.
So 2024 must mark an inflection point.

We’ve made the critical decision to set out our aspiration to reach 2.5% of GDP on defence, and as we stabilise and grow this economy, we’ll continue to strive to reach that as soon as possible.

The EU’s eastern states are demanding that the bloc impose import duties on Ukrainian grains, citing unfair competition

Russian troops carried out 45 unsuccessful assault operations on Zaporizhzhia front over last week, Ukraine says

 “There were more than 516 combat engagements over the past week. Russian occupiers launched 106 missile and 355 aviation strikes. Russians shelled our military positions and civilian infrastructure 307 times from multiple rocket launcher systems,” Kovaliov informed.

Russia says it has sentenced more than 200 Ukrainian prisoners of war

A top Ukrainian commander has said Russia hopes to claw back ground it lost in the southern Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, with Ukrainian troops staging smaller counterattacks in what has been described as “active defence”.

Russia mobilising about 1,000 soldiers every day – official

 The main factor motivating men to join the military is the pay, according to Skibitsky. He said that while the salary level may vary, those fighting in Ukraine make about 220,000-250,000 rubles ($1,700-1,900) a month.
“Russian prisoners of war frankly admit that they joined the army because they are paid, citing mortgages, families and so on. And this motive is currently the main one for those people who voluntarily go for mobilisation, sign contracts and fight,” Skibitsky said.
Skibitsky said that those driven to join the army for financial reasons are primarily from Russia’s regions where salaries are low and there are higher levels of unemployment.

Closing Summary

• Russia is mobilising about 1,000-1,100 recruits to its armed forces every day, Vadym Skibitsky, deputy head of Ukraine’s military intelligence agency (HUR), said in an interview with RBC-Ukraine published on Monday.
  
  
• Russia said it had given more than 200 Ukrainian prisoners of war lengthy prison sentences, with some getting a life sentence, AFP reported. The state-run outlet RT quoted an Investigative Committee source as saying that 242 soldiers were sentenced in occupied Ukraine.
  
  
• Ukraine said it shot down a Russian A-50 spy plane and Il-22 command aircraft in the area of the Sea of Azov.
  
  
• The Kremlin said Russia was developing relations with “our partner” North Korea in all areas and would build on the agreements reached between the countries’ leaders when they met at a Russian space launch centre last year.
  
  
• The UK’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) said that Russia had probably “substantially inflated” the number of people whom it says have joined the country’s armed forces, with new recruits being disproportionately drawn from some of Russia’s most impoverished and rural communities.
  
  
• The UK announced that it would send 20,000 service personnel to one of Nato’s largest military exercises since the cold war.
  
  
• The UN and its partners appealed for $4.2bn (£3.3bn) from donors to support communities in Ukraine devastated by the war, as well as Ukrainian refugees, in 2024. The UN aid chief, Martin Griffiths, urged diplomats in Geneva: “Please do not forget Ukraine while there are many other places in the world that grab our attention.”