Russian invasion of Ukraine: Day 655

Summary for Sunday, 10th December 2023 - DAY 655

• Ukraine condemned Russian plans to hold presidential elections next spring on occupied territory, declaring them “null and void” and pledging to prosecute any observers sent to monitor them. Russia’s upper house set the country’s presidential election this week for next March, and chair Valentina Matviyenko said residents in four occupied Ukrainian regions would be able to vote for the first time. Ukraine’s foreign ministry said: “We call on the international community to resolutely condemn Russia’s intention to hold presidential elections in the occupied Ukrainian territories, and to impose sanctions on those involved in their organisation and conduct.”
  
  
• Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy was travelling to the inauguration of Argentina’s president-elect, Javier Milei, Kyiv said on Saturday. Zelenskiy congratulated Milei, a far-right populist who has challenged Argentina’s political establishment, on his victory and both leaders spoke on the phone soon after Milei’s election. Zelenskiy then thanked Milei for his “clear support for Ukraine”, saying: “This is well noticed and appreciated by Ukrainians.” Milei’s office published a statement after the call saying he had “offered that Argentina could be the host of a summit between Ukraine and Latin America”.
  
  
• Ukraine’s first lady, Olena Zelenska, warned that Ukrainians were in “mortal danger” of being left to die if western countries did not continue their financial support. Zelenska made the remarks a day after Republican senators in the US blocked a key aid bill that would have provided more than $60bn worth of support to Ukraine.
  
  
• The Polish government denied reports that the delivery of military equipment to Ukraine was being hindered by protesting Polish truckers blockading the border. “I categorically deny that such a situation occurred,” said Polish vice-minister of national defence, Marcin Ociepa. “Military convoys that cross the border are convoys escorted by military police.”
  
  
• Avdiivka, the eastern Ukrainian city that has seen some of the most intense fighting of the war, is on the verge of “imminent collapse” to Russian forces, according to a report. A dispatch in the Times by its former Kyiv correspondent said Ukrainian troops defending the frontline area were “starved of ammunition” and hamstrung in their attempts to repel the advancing enemy soldiers.
  
  
• Olympic chiefs have been criticised for allowing Russian and Belarusian athletes to compete next year as neutrals, outside team events and if they do not actively support the invasion.
  
  
• The Finnish supreme court has blocked the extradition of a Russian neo-Nazi group leader who fought in Ukraine, Jan Petrovsky, warning of the risk that he could be susceptible to inhuman treatment, which is precluded under the European convention on human rights.
  

Russia has fired 19 shells at the city of Kherson over the past day

Four Ukrainian civilians killed in strikes on residential areas overnight, says former deputy prosecutor general

The major wave of strikes launched by the Russian air force towards Kyiv and central Ukraine on the night of 7 December was likely the start of a more coordinated campaign to try to degrade Ukraine’s energy infrastructure,

 On the night of 7 December 2023, the Russian air force conducted a major wave of strikes towards Kyiv and central Ukraine using its heavy bomber fleet, for the first time since 21 September 2023.
These aircraft, highly likely Tu-95 BEAR H, likely launched at least 16 air-launched cruise missiles (ALCMs) from their typical operating area over the Caspian Sea.
The missiles were highly likely AS-23a KODIAK, Russia’s premier ALCM. Russia has almost certainly been stockpiling these missiles for use in the winter campaign.
This was probably the start of a more concerted campaign by Russia aimed at degrading Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. However, initial reports indicate the majority of these missiles were successfully intercepted by Ukrainian air defence.

The official account of the general staff of the armed forces of Ukraine has said that from 4 December to 10 December, demining units of the state special service of transport discovered, removed and neutralised 882 “explosive objects”.

Russians suffer losses of armored vehicles near Krynky

The Russians suffered losses of armored vehicles near the village of Krynky, on the left bank of the Kherson region.
The commander of the Magyar Birds company reported this in his Telegram channel.
It is reported that during daylight hours on December 9, the Russians lost 4 tanks, 2 BMDs, and 4 APCs.
In addition, the Russians lost 28 FPV drones out of 31 detected during the day.

Destroyed equipment. Freeze frames from Magyar’s video

On December 8, it was reported that the offensive of Russian paratroopers was stopped due to remote terrain mining.
Mines were scattered on the Russian route between the settlement of Kozachi Laheri and the village of Krynky, where the Ukrainian military held positions.
As a result, the Russian armored vehicles lost cats and stopped moving, after which the crew and paratroopers left their BMD.

Earlier, on December 6, the destruction of the BTR-82А, BMD-4М, and URAL 4320-36 truck was reported.
BMD of Russian soldiers who were blown up by landmines in the Kherson region. Photo credits: Balu HUB
According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Defense Forces continue holding positions on the left bank of the Dnipro River in the Kherson region.
The assault groups of the Ukrainian military are currently trying to advance south of Krynky and strengthen the bridgehead southeast of the village.
In this direction, the Ukrainian military actively conducted counter-battery warfare, inflicting fire attacks on positions and on the rear of the enemy on the left bank.
Ukrainian military forces crossing the Dnipro River in the Kherson region on a boat. 2023, Ukraine. Photo credits: Volodymyr Zelensky

Earlier, the Russian media reported that the 104th Guards Airborne Assault Division of the Russian Federation was fighting against the Ukrainian military near the village of Krynky.

The division restored in 2023 likely includes the 337th Regiment, an additional maneuver regiment, and the 52nd Artillery Brigade.

Ukrainians repel new Russian assault near Avdiivka that targeted Khimik train station

Near Donetsk’s Avdiivka, Russian forces shift focus to Khimik train station, encountering logistical hurdles and strong Ukrainian opposition, and eventually failing the new assault.

Today, there are a lot of new developments in the Avdiivka direction. 

Screenshot from a Reporting From Ukraine video.

Here, Russian forces changed their plan of attack in the northern part of the region. Up until this point, the main target of the Russian forces was Berdychi because by reaching this settlement, Russians would be able to establish tight fire control over the supply roads and put Ukrainian forces in Avdiivka into an operational encirclement.


Screenshot from a Reporting From Ukraine video.

Even though some Russian sources continue claiming that Russian forces breached the Ukrainian defense in Stepove and are about to finish the job, the reality is quite different. The abundant footage released by the Ukrainian side shows that Ukrainians are firmly controlling the ground and are destroying Russian assault units the moment they cross the rails.


Screenshot from a Reporting From Ukraine video.

Sometimes combat footage confirms that Russians managed to reach the first houses, but hiding in the basements in hopes of being evacuated can hardly be considered a stable foothold. 
After seeing minimal to no gains in the Berdychi direction, the Russian commanders were forced to change their operational goals. Based on the fact that Russians recently shifted their focus a bit to the south, it became clear that Russians decided to decrease the scale of the encirclement operation because their new target became the Khimik train station.


Screenshot from a Reporting From Ukraine video.

This station is located just south of the main Ukrainian fortification – the chemical plant. The goal here is to move along the residential area towards the center of Avdiivka and cut off Ukrainian forces in the southern part of the settlement. A successful Russian advance in this region would indeed be catastrophic for Ukrainians because all Ukrainian supply roads are moving exactly through this region. The new Russian plan of downsizing their offensive operation to match the amount of resources available is actually quite clever, however, it doesn’t mean that the execution will be smooth or easy.

Screenshot from a Reporting From Ukraine video.


Screenshot from a Reporting From Ukraine video.

The biggest weakness of the Russian forces in this case is their logistics. By choosing this vector of attack, the Russian commanders basically forced their soldiers to use some of the riskiest and most exposed routes.


Screenshot from a Reporting From Ukraine video.

The roads have already become notorious among Russian soldiers because they are under Ukrainian ATGM fire control from the chemical plant and also drones.


Destroyed Russian equipment on a road northeast of Avdiivka. Screenshot from a Reporting From Ukraine video.

Even if Russian soldiers travel by foot, which is mostly how they travel in this region, there is virtually no possibility for them to accumulate forces in front of Ukrainian positions for an easier and quicker attack. So, they cannot copy the tactic that they used along the railways. Ukrainians, in turn, have a dense residential area and a small forest at their disposal, and they are also within a hundred meters from their main base.  
Since the area is split into two parts by the water reservoir, Russian forces opened two directions of attack: towards the residential area and the water pumping station.


Screenshot from a Reporting From Ukraine video.

When it comes to the station, the results were devasting to the Russians. Ukrainian fighters from the famous 110th mechanized brigade released one of the most brutal and graphic combat footage of the aftermath.


Screenshot from a Reporting From Ukraine video.

Since Russian soldiers had to assault in the open, many of them did not even reach the pumping station. The drones quickly detected them and started hunting them down together with mortar teams. As a result, there was no intact corpse on the ground. The fire was precise, and virtually no one survived the explosions. Those that survived were doomed anyway. 

Screenshot from a Reporting From Ukraine video.

Because the supporting attack failed, Russian forces in the residential area could not develop their operation due to crossfire, even though they achieved initial success and got a foothold in the first four lines of houses.

Screenshot from a Reporting From Ukraine video.

After the attack was stopped by the defenders on the ground, Ukrainian fighters from the Khorne Group were redeployed from Stepove to this region to clear it. Ukrainians conducted intense aerial reconnaissance, identified all houses where Russians established their presence, and sent a tank to demolish them. The tank got to the position within several minutes, and in coordination with drone pilots who were helping to navigate and correct the fire, they unleashed fire on Russian positions.


Tank attack on Russians northeast of Avdiivka. Screenshot from a Reporting From Ukraine video. Original video: Khorne Group

The video shows how some Russian soldiers are fleeing the area to escape the fire, possibly completely leaving the settlement of Vesele.

Russians routing from the settlement of Vesele, northeast of Avdiivka. Screenshot from a Reporting From Ukraine video. Original video: Khorne Group

Some Ukrainian analysts took a more cautious stance and assumed that the Russians are still present in the first two lines of houses, likely hiding in the basements.
Others concluded that they either retreated completely, and even if not, their positions are too vulnerable and unstable, and with no element of surprise, the chances of penetrating the Ukrainian defense here are extraordinarily low.
Especially given the empty ground that Russians need to cross before they can even start attacking Ukrainian positions."

Closing summary

• The White House will step up its engagement with US lawmakers trying to strike a bipartisan deal that would provide military aid for Ukraine and Israel while tightening US border security, a Democratic senator said. “The White House is going to get more engaged this week,” senator Chris Murphy, the lead Democratic negotiator, said on NBC News’ Meet the Press.
  
  
• The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said he held important meetings with the presidents of Paraguay, Uruguay and Ecuador, while he was in Argentina to witness the swearing-in of Argentina’s new president, Javier Milei. Zelenskiy also said he had spoken on the phone with his French counterpart, Emmanuel Macron, updating him on frontline developments and thanking him for France’s military aid.
  
  
• Overnight, four Ukrainian civilians were killed and seven others injured as a result of strikes on residential areas in the Kharkiv, Donetsk and Kherson regions, Gyunduz Mamedov, a former deputy prosecutor general of Ukraine, wrote on X.