Russian invasion of Ukraine: Day 673

Summary for Thursday, 28th December 2023 - DAY 673

Good morning

• The war in 2024 “must be different from 2023”, the head of Ukraine’s armed forces has said. “Otherwise we will face what I wrote about in the article [the Economist]”, said Gen Valerii Zaluzhnyi. “Unfortunately, I must state that the enemy is not far behind us. In recent days, we have had a powerful confrontation applying modern technologies. But we do not spare efforts. My main mistake was that I thought that the amount of losses we inflicted on the enemy would stop anyone. But not the Russian Federation.”
  
  
• Zaluzhnyi, giving a press conference, said Ukrainian troops remained on a defensive line in the northern part of Maryinka. “But I can say that this settlement no longer exists. The [Russian] method is the same as it was in Bakhmut. Street by street, block by block are destroyed. The fact that we have now moved to the outskirts of Maryinka, and in some places equipped positions beyond Maryinka, seems to me to be nothing that can cause a public outcry.”
  
  
• “As for the conduct of hostilities around Avdiivka,” he continued, “there is no need to dwell on it and make a show of it. The conduct of hostilities is subject to the laws of war, and they are not subject to what politicians or journalists want. The enemy now has the opportunity to concentrate forces; they can do to the city in two or three months what they have done to Bakhmut.”
  
  
• Two people were killed in Russian drone attacks on Odesa, according to figures from the Odesa oblast governor, Oleh Kiper. A 17-year-old was among the wounded and remained in hospital.
  
  
• The Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, held talks in Moscow with his Indian counterpart, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, and said progress had been made on plans for Russia and India to jointly produce military equipment. Jaishankar added that he expected Vladimir Putin and the Indian prime minister, Narendra Modi, to meet next year.
  
  
• The Russian president, Vladimir Putin, must be stopped in his war against Ukraine or all of Europe will pay a much higher price, Moldova’s pro-European president, Maia Sandu, said in an interview published on Wednesday.
  

Explosions heard in Sevastopol, Crimean bridge closed

An air defence system was deployed in Sevastopol on the night of 27-28 December.

About 20 Russians surrender on Tavriia front – Commander of Tavriia Operational Strategic Group

Approximately 20 Russian invaders surrendered on the Tavriia front on 27 December.

US Congress urged to 'act swiftly' on aid to Ukraine

Ukraine’s air defence systems shot down seven out of eight Russia-launched Shahed drones overnight, the country’s air force said on Thursday.

The UK Defense Intelligence Analyses the Destruction of Novocherkassk Ship

Loss of Novocherkassk ship deals major blow to russian logistics and amphibious ambitions

On December 25, 2023, the russian Navy’s Ropucha class Novocherkassk landing ship tank (LST) was completely destroyed following a Ukrainian strike while alongside at the port of Feodosia, on the south coast of temporarily occupied Crimea, the UK Defense Intelligence reports.
Open source evidence suggests it is highly likely the vessel was carrying explosive cargo when it was hit, causing a large secondary explosion. The incident takes the number of LSTs russia has lost since the invasion to three: the Saratov ship sank on 24 March 2022, while the Minsk ship was functionally destroyed in dry dock on September 13, 2023. Two additional LSTs have likely been damaged.

The Novocherkassk landing craft / open source

Russia likely planned to use its LST force to launch significant amphibious assaults during the invasion and it doubled the number of these vessels in the Black Sea during the build-up to the war. As the war has dragged on, the ships have been more commonly employed in providing logistical support. This is a significant role because it augments the vital and relatively fragile road and rail connection of the Crimea Bridge, which links Crimea to russia.

Russia has lost 356,670 personnel since the beginning of the war until 28 December, according to the Ukrainian Army’s General Staff.

The Russian navy’s Ropucha-class landing ship tank (LST) Novocherkassk was completely destroyed on 25 December 2023 following a Ukrainian strike while alongside at the port of Feodosia, on the south coast of Russian-occupied Crimea

Russia likely planned to use its LST force to launch significant amphibious assaults during the invasion and it doubled the number of these vessels in the Black Sea during the build-up to the war.
As the war has dragged on, the ships have been more commonly employed in providing logistical support. This is a significant role because it augments the vital and relatively fragile road and rail connection of the Crimea Bridge, which links Crimea to Russia.

UK defence secretary Grant Shapps has said Russia “misled” when it claimed the Novocherkassk was “damaged”.

It’s crucial that in 2024 the civilised world continues to back Ukraine in this epoch defining battle currently playing out in Europe.

More on the Panama-flagged bulk carrier incident

A Panama-flagged civilian vessel was blown up on an enemy sea mine in the Black Sea...The vessel lost its course and control, and a fire broke out on the upper deck.

Two Russian men sentenced to prison terms for reciting poetry criticising Russia's invasion of Ukraine

Two Russian men have been sentenced to long prison terms for reading poems criticising Russia’s military assault on Ukraine.

Cargo ship hits naval mine in Black Sea en route to Ukraine

Ukrainian authorities said Thursday that a commercial ship arriving to collect grain hit a Russian naval mine in the Black Sea, injuring two sailors.

Russia abducts 10,000 Ukrainian children to Russian ‘health’ camps in Autumn 2023 alone

Russia conceals actual casualties from hydroelectric power station bombing, at least hundreds killed – AP

The Russian occupying administration has deliberately concealed the true number of casualties in the floods in Kherson Oblast caused by Russia's blowing up of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant, with at least hundreds of people killed in the town of Oleshky (Kherson Oblast) alone.

Source: Associated Press (AP) citing medical workers, rescue volunteers, people who fled the occupied territory, informants who passed information from there to Ukrainian security services

Quote from AP: "An AP investigation has found Russian occupation authorities vastly and deliberately undercounted the dead…

Russian authorities took control of the issuance of death certificates, immediately removing bodies not claimed by family, and preventing local health workers and volunteers from dealing with the dead, threatening them when they defied orders.
Russia … has said 59 people drowned in the territory it controls, roughly 408 square kilometres (160 square miles) of flooded areas. But in the Russian-occupied town of Oleshky alone … the number is at least in the hundreds."
Details: The agency spoke to three medical workers who kept records of the dead in Oleshky, one volunteer who buried the bodies, and two informants who passed intelligence from the area to the Ukrainian Security Service. They reported that the mass graves had been dug up and the unidentified bodies taken away and never seen again.
The journalists also interviewed about a dozen other residents, rescue volunteers and people who had recently fled the area.
The AP also took into account information from the closed Oleshky-related Telegram channel, where residents reported bodies lying on the streets, corpses collected by the police, and missing people.

Quote from AP: "Together, these accounts reveal a calculated attempt by Russian authorities to cover up the true cost of the dam collapse, which the AP has found was likely caused by Moscow. Residents of Oleshky fear their enduring traumas risk being forgotten as the war grinds on, and their beloved once idyllic home is gradually depopulated."

More details: Local residents said representatives of the occupying authorities were nowhere to be seen over the first three days of the flood, and they had apparently fled despite initially asking people not to worry.
Svitlana, the chief nurse of the Oleshky District Multidisciplinary Hospital, the city's primary healthcare centre, who coordinated the collection of death certificates, reported that the rotting of bodies had caused the corpses to bloat and "people were floating around the city like balloons".

AP reported that the Russian State Emergency Service arrived back in Oleshky on the afternoon of 9 June. Doctors were prohibited from issuing death certificates to flood casualties. However, they were still allowed to issue certificates for other causes of death. Svitlana and Olena, her nurse co-worker at the hospital, said they were informed of the new rule verbally.
They were told that flood victims would have to be sent for autopsies to medical facilities in other parts of Kherson Oblast (the settlements of Kalanchak, Skadovsk and Henichesk), where, after a forensic medical examination, certificates would be issued by doctors authorised by the occupying authorities to give them. Relatives could not bury their family members without this crucial document.
Svitlana explained that she approached the police requesting an "official order" confirming the change in the existing policy, which had been in place since March. She said they did not have it and responded to her request with threats.
"They said: ‘You will suffer the consequences for doing this.’"
Every day, police officers would come to the hospital to make copies of the death certificates issued by doctors and make sure that the rules were being followed. "You need to understand under what circumstances we worked there – under the FSB, police, prosecutors," Svitlana noted.
The hospital sent just under 50 bodies to autopsy centres. However, as AP says, the Russians gave residents certain phone numbers to call the police, who sent people to pick up the bodies, bypassing the hospital. At the same time, family members were charged RUB 10,000 [roughly US$100] as a fee for the service.
Those who did not have that kind of money begged doctors to record a different cause of death, such as heart attack, so they could be buried quickly, the two nurses said. Bodies that were not searched for by relatives simply disappeared.
"Not just Russia, but even Ukraine doesn’t realise the scale of this tragedy," Svitlana noted.

One person killed and another injured after Russian attack in Kharkiv Oblast, regional governor said

Russians shelling village in Zaporizhia region: Two people killed, three injured

Execution of Ukrainian prisoners of war near Zaporizhzhia: soldiers of 82nd Air Assault Brigade killed

The three Ukrainian soldiers whose execution was filmed and has recently appeared online were soldiers of the 82nd Air Assault Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

• The Ukrainian Prosecutor's Office has launched an investigation into the execution of Ukrainian prisoners of war by Russian soldiers near Zaporizhzhia.
  
  
• Investigators say Russian Armed Forces servicemen captured three Ukrainian defenders in December 2023 during a combat engagement with Ukraine’s Defence Forces near the village of Robotyne in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. An hour later, the Russians shot them dead in violation of Article 3 of the Geneva Convention relative to the Treatment of Prisoners of War.
  
  
• A video of this has spread on the internet.
  

Ukraine Issues Avdiivka Update After 'Most Difficult Month'

The situation on the ground in the embattled Donetsk town of Avdiivka is "constantly changing," Ukraine has said, as its forces come to the end of what Kyiv described as the toughest month of the 22-month old war against Russia.
"We are constantly maneuvering our units," Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, who commands Ukraine's Tavria group of forces covering Avdiivka, told the BBC in an interview published on Wednesday.
"The situation is constantly changing—both positively and negatively. If it is negative, then we react as much as possible," he said.
Russia launched its offensive around Avdiivka on October 10, triggering thousands of deaths on both sides just ahead of the grueling winter season settling in across Ukraine.

Panorama of the city from a bird's-eye view, shot on a drone, covered with snow on December 7, 2023 in Avdiivka, Ukraine. The situation on the ground in Avdiivka is "constantly changing," Ukraine has said, as its forces come to the end of what Kyiv described as the toughest month of the 22-month old war. Kostya Liberov/Libkos/Getty Images

Western analysts were initially optimistic about Avdiivka holding out and Ukrainian defenses remaining unbreached. But almost daily, Moscow has been inching further around the industrial settlement. Russian forces advanced in the past few days, including in eastern Stepove, a village just north of Avdiivka, the U.S. think tank, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), said on Wednesday.
"The enemy has been trying to push through our defense for the third month in a row, sparing no people, weapons, or military equipment," Tarnavskyi added.
Russia wants to "at the very least" capture Avdiivka by the end of the year, Tarnavskyi said. Moscow ultimately hopes to reach the western edges of the contested eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions by 2024, he argued.
Reaching these borders would be a significant propaganda victory for the Kremlin, former Ukrainian army colonel Serhiy Hrabsky told Newsweek on Wednesday.
December has been "the most difficult month" of the war so far, Colonel Oleksandr Shtupun, spokesperson for the Tavria group, said on Thursday. Russian forces are "storming Marinka and Avdiivka all the time," he said, according to comments published by Ukrainian media.
"In terms of the number of attacks, in terms of pressure on our units, the last month of this year is the hardest," he said.
Russia said on Monday that its forces were in full control of Marinka, a town on the frontlines to the southwest of Avdiivka, which Ukraine initially denied. But Kyiv's top soldier, General Valery Zaluzhnyi, said late Tuesday that Ukrainian forces had retreated to the northern flank of the town.
"There is nothing controversial about the fact that Ukrainian soldiers have stepped back to the outskirts of the town of Marinka," Zaluzhnyi told the media.
Marinka is deserted, largely left in ruins after years of clashes between Ukrainian forces pitted against Russian and Moscow-backed forces.
Hrabsky told Newsweek on Wednesday that Marinka is far less of a strategic victory for Russia than Avdiivka, although both towns have weathered nine years on the frontlines.
Capturing Avdiivka would allow Moscow to greatly expand its logistical operations, jeopardize Ukraine's operations against Russian positions in Donetsk City and could pave Russia's path to Kostyantynivka—a "quite important stronghold," Hrabsky added.
Kostyantynivka is on the approach to the industrial zones around Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, still firmly under Ukrainian control.
On Thursday, Ukraine's military said its forces had "repelled" 32 Russian attacks along the frontlines close to Avdiivka in the previous 24 hours. Kyiv also fought off three Russian attacks around Marinka and the village of Novomykhailivka just south of Marinka, the Ukrainian military said in an operational update.
Russia's Defense Ministry said on Thursday that its forces had taken out 115 Ukrainian fighters and three military vehicles in southern Donetsk over the past day, including around Novomykhailivka.
Ukraine's grasp around Novomykhailivka "will significantly deteriorate" now that Russia controls Marinka, Hrabsky said.

Map produced by the Institute for the Study of War think tank, showing the front lines in Ukraine as of December 27. Russia aims to capture Avdiivka "at the very least" by the end of the year, Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, who commands Ukraine's Tavria group of forces covering Avdiivka, said on Wednesday. Institute for the Study of War

Closing Summary

• Russian occupation authorities vastly and deliberately undercounted the dead in the flooding after the explosion that destroyed the Kakhovka Dam an investigation by the Associated Press (AP) has found. Russia said 59 people drowned in the territory it controls, but the AP investigation claims the number is at least in the hundreds in the town of Oleshky alone.
  
  
• The United States has announced a fresh package of arms to Ukraine, worth up to $250m. The package comes amid growing Republican opposition to continued financial support for Kyiv. The state department has said the US Congress should “act swiftly” to renew the flow of aid to Ukraine.
  
  
• Volodymyr Zelenskiy has thanked the United States for the fresh military aid package. In a post on X, Zelenskiy wrote: “We must continue to respond to ongoing Russian aggression in the most forceful and resolute manner possible.”
  
  
• Russian forces struck Vovchansk in Kharkiv Oblast on the morning of 28 December, killing a 66-year-old woman and wounding another resident, reported Oleh Syniehubov, the regional governor.
  
  
• Russian navy’s Ropucha-class landing ship tank (LST) Novocherkassk was completely destroyed on 25 December 2023 following a Ukrainian strike while alongside at the port of Feodosia, on the south coast of Russian-occupied Crimea, the latest summary from the UK’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) has said.
  
  
• Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, has warned that no one worldwide could be certain of escaping unscathed from western machinations in 2024, Reuters reported. In an interview released by the official Tass news agency, Lavrov added that the west’s dominance was “slipping away”.
  
  
• Russia is resolved to achieve its goals in its military operations in Ukraine, Lavrov has said, adding that what he called the west’s strategy to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia had “completely failed”.
  
  
• The G7 countries intend to discuss a “peace formula” proposed by Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy, which they agreed on at a “secret summit” held about 10 days ago, Lavrov said in an interview with Russian state media.
  
  
• In an interview with RIA state news agency and the Rossiya 24 TV channel, Sergei Lavrov said some in the west were suggesting Moscow should discuss peace in Ukraine because the United States and its allies had failed to defeat Russian forces in Ukraine.He added he believed there were signs the west was changing its tactics and strategy on Ukraine.
  
  
• A Panama-flagged bulk carrier, which was heading to a River Danube port to load grain hit a Russian mine in the Black Sea on Wednesday, injuring two crew members, Ukrainian officials said on Thursday.
  
  
• Russia is resolved to achieve its goals in its military operations in Ukraine, its foreign minister Sergei Lavrov has said, adding that what he called the west’s strategy to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia had “completely failed”. The G7 countries intend to discuss a “peace formula” proposed by Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky, which they agreed on at a “secret summit” held about 10 days ago, Lavrov said in an interview with Russian state media.
  
  
• Russia has lost 356,670 personnel since the beginning of the war until 28 December, according to the Ukrainian Army’s General Staff. Other losses include 5,940 tanks, 11,015 APVs, 8,391 artillery systems and 6,503 drones.
  
  
• Ukraine and Hungary are preparing a meeting of president Volodymyr Zelenskiy and prime minister Viktor Orbán in the near future, the Ukrainian president’s chief of staff said on Thursday.
  
  
• Ukraine’s air defence systems shot down seven out of eight Russia-launched Shahed drones overnight, the country’s air force said on Thursday. Drones were downed in three central and southern regions, the air force said on the Telegram messenger. The Russian defence ministry said it thwarted a Ukrainian drone attack over Moscow-occupied Crimea overnight.
  
  
• Finland will be the first country to “suffer” in the event of an escalation of tensions between Russia and Nato due to its proximity to the former, the RIA news agency cited senior Russian diplomat Mikhail Ulyanov, permanent representative of Russia to international organisations in Vienna as saying: “...since they are our neighbours, if, God forbid there is some escalation, they will be the first to suffer.”
  
  
• The United States has proposed that working groups from G7 nations explore ways to seize $300bn in frozen Russian assets, according to the Financial Times.
  
  
• Two Russian men have been sentenced to long prison terms for reading poems criticising Russia’s military attack on Ukraine. Artyom Kamardin was sentenced to seven years in prison and Yegor Shtovba to five years and six months. Both men were convicted of “inciting hatred” and “calling for activities threatening state security”.
  
  
• A raunchy celebrity-studded party in Moscow has prompted outrage among Russian politicians and law enforcement agencies, in one of the starkest examples to date of how Vladimir Putin is moving the country in a conservative and anti-liberal direction.
  
  
• Russia’s space state agency Roscosmos said has said that a cross-flight programme with NASA to the International Space Station (ISS) had been extended until 2025, Interfax news agency reported.