Russian invasion of Ukraine: Day 713

Summary for Tuesday, 6th February 2024 - DAY 713

• A Tu-95 bomber pilot has been shot in the Russian city of Engels, according to Ukraine’s military intelligence directorate, the GUR. “The commander of the crew of the Tu-95 strategic bomber, Maj Oleg Sergeevich Stegachyov, was shot … he is directly involved in launching missile strikes on civilian objects in Ukraine and killing our people.” The GUR said it was clarifying whether he survived.
  
  
• More than two dozen people, mostly journalists, were detained on Saturday at a protest in central Moscow where wives and other relatives of Russian servicemen mobilised to fight in Ukraine called for their return, according to a Reuters witness and independent Russian news reports.
  
  
• Belgium is asking G7 countries to consider using €260n in seized Russian assets held by the west as collateral for loans to Ukraine, according to a report in the Financial Times. This would avoid questions around the legality of seizing the assets outright, as has also been considered by Ukraine’s allies, according to the paper.
  
  
• Russia said 28 people died after shelling of the eastern Ukrainian city of Lysychansk, which is under Russian occupation. Ukrainian officials have not made any statement on the incident, but Ukraine has previously stated that it deliberately attacks only military sites, in contrast with Russia’s indiscriminate bombing of civilians.
  
  
• In the US, Republicans in the House of Representatives have put forward a bill funding military aid to Israel, but pointedly excluding Ukraine. The US Senate has already put together a bipartisan compromise bill that covers Israel, Ukraine and US-Mexico border security.
  
  
• Ukraine is close to signing security agreements with France and Germany, with texts being finalised, according to the Ukrainian government.
  
  
• The actor Milos Bikovic has been dropped from the cast of popular TV series The White Lotus, according to the HBO network, after the Serbian’s ties to Russia drew rebukes from Ukraine.
  
  
• Poland’s president, Andrzej Duda, has rowed back from a statement he made on Saturday in which he cast doubt over Ukraine’s ability to retake Crimea.
  
  
• Two Ukrainian drones struck the largest oil refinery in southern Russia on Saturday. Local authorities in Russia said a fire broke out at the Volgograd refinery of the Lukoil company.
  
  
• Ukraine’s air defences downed nine of 14 Russian drones in an attack on Saturday morning that hit energy infrastructure in the city of Kryvyi Rih, the air force and regional officials said.
  

Ukraine shelling in Lysychansk killed at least 28 people, says Russia

 At least one child was among the dead, local leader Leonid Pasechnik wrote in a statement on Telegram. A further 10 people were rescued from under the rubble by emergency services, he said.
Ukrainian officials in Kyiv did not comment on the incident. Both Moscow and Kyiv have increasingly relied on longer-range attacks this winter amid largely unchanged positions on the 1,500-kilometer (930-mile) front line in the nearly 2-year-old war.
The military administration for Ukraine’s Sumy region said Sunday that Russian forces had shelled the region in 16 separate attacks the previous day, firing on the border communities of Yunakivka, Bilopillia, Krasnopillia, Velyka Pysarivka, and Esman.

Ukraine’s armed forces say more than 800 Russian soldiers died in conflict yesterday

Volodymyr Zelenskiy has been visiting Ukraine’s National Cancer Institute in Kyiv to thank staff on World Cancer Day.

Situation in Avdiivka 'near critical' – OSINT analyst interview

Roman Pohorilyi, co-founder and analyst of the DeepState military open-source intelligence (OSINT) monitoring project, spoke in an interview with NV Radio on Feb. 5 about the situation in Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast, where Russian troops have been advancing in recent weeks.

NV: I would like to start with the recent DeepState update that showed enemy forces advancing north of Avdiivka. How would you describe the latest developments in the area?

Pohorilyi: Avdiivka now is a very complicated process, a very complicated city with heavy battles taking place. If you look at the last update, you can see which area the enemy has taken over and in what direction they’re moving.
They’ve also become more active in the south. This is the area near Tsarska Okhota restaurant.

NV: That is southeast of Avdiivka where the invaders tried to break through our defenses two weeks ago.

Pohorilyi: Southeast of Avdiivka, yes. This is the area where the Russians had successful tactical maneuvers, particularly with the help of a tunnel, which they are using to advance.

NV: This is the underground tunnel they used to crawl through.

Pohorilyi: Yes. Since they feel successful there, they’re concentrating their forces there, trying to push through with everything they have and develop this success. Everything is moving towards their goal: to enter the residential areas of the city.

It will be very difficult for Ukraine if they enter the residential areas, and it won’t be easy to oust them if they dig in.
The south will follow, namely Pervomaiske and Vodiane. They’re trying to advance in all directions, develop [success] and expand their territorial control. That is, Sieverne, Tonenke, and Pervomaiske are the directions they bypass and look for, picking out a weak spot.

If you look further north, they’re now focused on Vesele and Kamianka. They’re also advancing and succeeding there, and we can see they’re developing this success. They’re entering the low-density residential area, trying to bypass the [Avdiivka] Coke Plant further south.

The defense of Avdiivka is now under extremely difficult conditions. Bakhmut used to have a lot of media attention when it was under comparable pressure.

NV: It was exactly a year ago.

Pohorilyi: Avdiivka is now in difficult conditions. They’re advancing and have accumulated human resources and equipment in the area.

They’re now not just attacking with manpower but have also brought some more equipment to bear. We need all the attention and maximum help there now. We need to do everything possible to hold off the enemy as there’s no room for mistakes.

NV: What might be the consequences if we lose Avdiivka?

Pohorilyi: First, they would immediately begin to consolidate their ground. They will build fortifications, and they have an advantage in this. They do everything possible to gain a strong foothold. Accordingly, we would have to drive them out of these positions, and that means additional forces, additional losses, the lives of our soldiers and civilians.

Therefore, it’s necessary to make all effort, use all resources and means, absolutely everything, to prevent the enemy from advancing. If this [fall of Avdiivka] happens, it will lead to dire consequences.

Urban warfare is incredibly difficult—it would be very difficult to oust enemy troops from Avdiivka if they capture it.

Russia’s envoy in Seoul was summoned by the South Korean foreign ministry on Saturday to lodge a complaint over Moscow’s criticism of comments by South Korea President Yoon Suk-yeol on North Korea’s pursuit of a nuclear arsenal.

The BBC has published an investigation overnight into Russia’s use of prisoners to fight the war in Ukraine.

Kyiv: Russia amasses 42,000 troops near Kupyansk

Zelenskiy has been visiting Ukrainian troops in the Zaporizhzhia region

President Volodymyr Zelensky has appointed a man who was once abducted by Russia as the new mayor of the frontline Zaporizhzhia region, his office said on Sunday.

Zelensky made the announcement as he visited the southern front on Sunday, including meeting troops in the frontline village and fighting hotspot of Robotyne, which has been heavily attacked by Russia.
“The head of state introduced the newly appointed head of the Zaporizhzhia regional state administration Ivan Federov, who has been the mayor of the now temporarily occupied Melitopol since December 2020 and was in Russian captivity,” Zelensky’s office said in a statement.
Melitopol, a city 130 kilometres (80 miles) south of Zaporizhzhia, fell to Russian troops in the first weeks of their invasion in 2022.
Fedorov, 35, was abducted in March 2022 by Russian soldiers as they entered his city after refusing to cooperate with Moscow. He was held in captivity before being swapped for a group of young Russian soldiers that same month.
Fedorov replaces previous governor Yuriy Malashko, who on Telegram said he was handing over authority to a “new team”.

More details are emerging about Saturday’s strike on a bakery in Russian-occupied Lysychansk.

Closing Summary

• Russia said 28 people, including one child, have died in Saturday’s shelling of a bakery in the eastern Ukrainian city of Lysychansk, which is under Russian occupation. A further 10 people were rescued from under the rubble by emergency services, according to officials. Kyiv has not made any statement on the incident.
  
  
• President Volodymyr Zelensky has been visiting Ukrainian troops on the southeastern frontline and handing out medals.
  
  
• Zelensky used the visit to announce a new mayor of the frontline Zaporizhzhia region, Ivan Federov. Federov was once abducted by Russia and was previously mayor of the now temporarily occupied Melitopol since December 2020.
  
  
• More than two dozen people, mostly journalists, were detained on Saturday at a protest in central Moscow where wives and other relatives of Russian servicemen mobilised to fight in Ukraine called for their return, according to a Reuters witness and independent Russian news reports.
  
  
• Belgium is asking G7 countries to consider using €260n in seized Russian assets held by the west as collateral for loans to Ukraine, according to a report in the Financial Times. This would avoid questions around the legality of seizing the assets outright, as has also been considered by Ukraine’s allies, according to the paper.
  
  
• Russian cosmonaut Oleg Kononenko set a world record for the total amount of time spent in space on Sunday. As of 8.30GMT, Kononenko overtook his compatriot Gennady Padalka who logged more than 878 days in orbit, according to Russia’s space corporation, Roscosmos.
  
  
• Russia’s envoy in Seoul was summoned by the South Korean foreign ministry on Saturday to lodge a complaint over Moscow’s criticism of comments by South Korea President Yoon Suk-yeol on North Korea’s pursuit of a nuclear arsenal.
  
  
• The US House of Representatives is expected to vote later this week on a standalone $17.6bn aid package for Israel, pointedly excluding proposed military funding for Ukraine. Republicans have refused to support a military aid package for Ukraine unless aid was tied to domestic border reforms.
  
  
• Ukraine is close to signing security agreements with France and Germany, with texts being finalised, according to the Ukrainian government.
  
  
• Poland’s president, Andrzej Duda, has rowed back from a statement he made on Saturday in which he cast doubt over Ukraine’s ability to retake Crimea.
  
  
• Two Ukrainian drones struck the largest oil refinery in southern Russia on Saturday. Local authorities in Russia said a fire broke out at the Volgograd refinery of the Lukoil company.