Russian invasion of Ukraine: Day 688

Summary for Friday, 12th January 2024 - DAY 688

• The US has imposed sanctions on three Russian entities and one individual involved in the transfer and testing of North Korea’s ballistic missiles for Russia’s use against Ukraine. North Korea’s “transfer of ballistic missiles to Russia supports Russia’s war of aggression, increases the suffering of the Ukrainian people, and undermines the global nonproliferation regime”, said Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state.
  
  
• Boris Nadezhdin, a Russian presidential hopeful opposing the war against Ukraine, met on Thursday with a group of soldiers’ wives who are demanding that their husbands be discharged from the frontline. The longtime Kremlin critic is collecting signatures to qualify to challenge President Vladimir Putin in the 15-17 March vote.
  
  
• Nadezhdin, 60, told the soldiers’ wives that the war was “a big mistake by Putin, of course, and the consequences will be very grave … we want [the soldiers] simply to come back”. Putin’s supporters and opponents alike see his re-election as beyond doubt, given his total grip on power and the fact that his best-known opponent, Alexei Navalny, is serving jail terms totalling more than 30 years in an Arctic penal colony.
  
  
• The EU industrial chief, Thierry Breton, is targeting €3bn in a scheme to ramp up production of defence equipment. “We just have to make sure we are prepared for all eventualities. Russia is one of our biggest concerns,” he said arguing Europe’s ammunition supplies has to be “on a par” with Russia. “We will propose for the next phase, doing what we did just for ammunition, but for all kinds of equipment that we need to produce, to enhance production in Europe,” Breton said. “We will make this public at the end of February,” he said.
  
  
• The European Commission has already allocated €1.5bn but wants to double the amount, said Breton, who earlier this week broached the idea of a €100bn European defence fund. He said this would be a matter for the next commission, due to be appointed at the end of this year.
  
  
• As Volodymr Zelenskiy wrapped up his tour of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, the Ukrainian president said his country was “grateful” for already-delivered Patriot air defence systems, without which it would be “impossible to survive” some attacks, but asked for more deliveries. “How can you live and sleep peacefully, if you have dozens of such systems?” he asked during a press conference in Latvia’s capital, Riga.
  
  
• Latvia’s president, Edgars Rinkevics, announced a new aid package, saying Riga will deliver “artillery shells, anti-aircraft weapons, grenades, drones” for Ukraine this year.
  
  
• Switzerland and Ukraine will host peace formula talks at Davos on Sunday. It is the latest in a series of meetings to rally support for Ukraine’s peace plan and will be the fourth of its kind and the biggest yet.
  
  
• Ukraine’s parliament have refused to debate a bill aimed at drafting more soldiers. Speaking after a closed door meeting with Ukraine’s military leaders, David Arakhamia, ruling party leader said “some provisions directly violate human rights”.
  
  
• Top defence officials from Turkey, Bulgaria and Romania signed a memorandum of understanding in Istanbul establishing the Mine Countermeasures Naval Group in the Black Sea (MCM Black Sea), which will oversee demining operations in the Black Sea to ensure safe waters after Russia’s war.
  
  
• Russia’s Belgorod region bordering is going through “hard times” due to recent shelling by Ukraine, said its governor, Vyacheslav Gladkov.
  
  
• The Kremlin has accused the US of trying to pressure European countries into backing the seizure of frozen Russian assets overseas to help finance the rebuilding of Ukraine – an idea that has gained momentum.
  
  
• Ukraine has been building barricades and digging trenches as its focus shifts towards defence. On Wednesday, Reuters reporters visited trenches being dug with an excavator and shovels at an undisclosed location in the Chernihiv region near the Russian border.
  
  
• Ukraine’s national union of journalists said Russian missile strikes on a hotel in Kharkiv amounted to “the intimidation of media workers in order to limit the coverage of the war”. Thirteen people were injured, including foreign journalists.
  

'Half a battalion escaped to the forest' – Russian soldier blamed for mass refusal to fight

An intercepted call between a soldier and his friend Max describes either a genuine mass desertion, or a vindictive commander seeking to blame others for his lack of success.

A Russian soldier has been overheard in an intercepted phone call describing how half a battalion of Moscow’s troops refused orders and now “are just sitting around in the forest, not fighting.”

In the conversation released by Ukraine's Military Intelligence Directorate (HUR), the man tells his friend Max that he was made to look like an “idiot” by his district commander – nicknamed Wolf – who appears to have learned of the situation before him.

But it’s not clear from the call whether or not the men were refusing to fight or if Wolf had made the situation up in order to blame them for the lack of success in his district.
“Wolf said that half a battalion f**ked off somewhere in the forest and are just sitting around, not fighting," he says.

The soldier – who appears to have been in charge of the men but didn’t know that some had apparently deserted – tried in vain to defend himself.
“And I say, no, everyone is in position,” he says, adding: “In short, they all made me look like a complete f**king idiot that I was not aware of the situation.”
He adds: “The Wolf is a douchebag. He said there are no successes because the entire third battalion completely refused to fight.
“And now our battalion is just the most f**ked up for everyone. What am I supposed to say when everyone is slagging off our battalion?”

A Russian battalion consists of four companies and comprises anywhere from 250-1000 men.

During the call, the soldier also begs Max to help him get away from the front, telling him to go to Wolf and make up a story about how he is needed elsewhere.
“Max, help me,” he says.
“Contact Wolf and tell him that you need something to get me the f**k out of here. I’m f**king sick of everyone here.”

Discord over the war's duration and intensity is appears to be growing among Russian soldiers.
In a number of conversations recently intercepted by HUR, they discuss ways to give up serving and avoid further deployment to the frontline while civilians panic about being conscripted.

For example, two Russian soldiers have been heard in an intercepted call complaining about not being given leave in almost two years and saying that “soon we'll gather a crowd and head towards Russia.”
“B**ch, we haven't been on vacation for years and f**k it,” one of the soldiers said.

In the latest development, on Dec. 19, Alexander Shpilevoy, mobilized from Voronezh, recorded a video calling for the rotation of military personnel and an end to hostilities in Ukraine.

Three weeks later, it was revealed that he was confined in a penal guards' facility – basically a punishment pit – in the Luhansk region.

Shpilevoy mentioned in the video that he decided to make his appeal after watching a live line with Vladimir Putin.
"Peace or the continuation of hostilities? Definitely peace. That's what most citizens want. But the mobilized want it a hundred times more than ordinary civilians. And our president does not want to give it," Shpilevoy said in a video address.

As the video started spreading on Russian social media, Shpilevoy reportedly faced threats. Upon his return from vacation to the front at the end of December, his family lost contact with him.

Concerns about his well-being led a friend to contact the military unit, which insisted he was on a combat mission.
However, on Jan. 7, the "Diary of a Cossack" Telegram channel disclosed that Shpilevoy had been placed in a "pit for punishment."

Earlier this year, Kyiv Post interviewed Maria* who works as one of Ukrainian intelligence’s professional eavesdroppers and spoke about the shocking things she hears.

Russia regularly dismisses the content of intercepted calls published by Ukraine, saying they are faked, a claim Kyiv Post put to Maria. She said: “Yes, they all are real even though they might seem insane. Sometimes I can’t believe the words I’m hearing myself, but we have what we have.”

Rishi Sunak pledges £2.5bn in military aid to Ukraine during Kyiv visit

UK prime minister also signs multi-year security treaty with Volodymyr Zelenskiy, calling it ‘a strong signal to Putin’

Rishi Sunak’s visit comes at a tense moment after after UK and US launched air and missile strikes in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen, aimed at halting attacks on ships in the Red Sea.
Zelenskiy has pressed allies in the west to provide Ukraine with more support against Russian forces, amid fears that interest in the war is flagging as the war drags on.
The crisis in the Middle East as Israel continues to bombard Gaza has also turned global attention away from Russian president Vladimir Putin’s invasion of the country. The UK and US, with support from allies Australia, Bahrain, Canada, and the Netherlands, hit at least 60 targets in 16 locations around Yemen overnight on Thursday.
Announcing his visit to Kyiv, Sunak said: “For two years, Ukraine has fought with great courage to repel a brutal Russian invasion. They are still fighting, unfaltering in their determination to defend their country and defend the principles of freedom and democracy.
“I am here today with one message: the UK will also not falter. We will stand with Ukraine, in their darkest hours and in the better times to come.”
Sunak made his first visit to Ukraine in November 2022, weeks after entering No 10.

A senior Ukrainian presidential aide said on Friday he was confident that an amended bill seeking to tighten Ukraine’s mobilisation laws would be passed in the coming days or weeks, despite hitting setbacks this week.

Russian ex-president Dmitry Medvedev said in a post on Telegram on Friday that deployment of any British military contingent in Ukraine would be a declaration of war against Russia.

Ukraine's Rocket Forces hit 12 Russian targets in last 24 hours

There were 68 combat clashes at the contact line over the past day.
The Russians launched 2 missile strikes, 43 airstrikes and fired 25 times from multiple rocket launchers.

Source: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Facebook, information as of 18:00 on 12 January

Quote: "Over the past day, the aviation of the Defence Forces struck 21 areas of concentration of personnel, weapons and military equipment, as well as 4 enemy anti-aircraft missile systems.

Rocket Forces struck six clusters of personnel, weapons and military equipment, one command post, one artillery unit, two air defence facilities, one ammunition storage point and one enemy radar station."

Details:

• On the Sivershchyna and Slobozhanshchyna fronts, the Russians maintain a military presence in the border areas, conduct sabotage and reconnaissance activities, attack settlements from the territory of the Russian Federation, and increase the density of minefields along the state border of Ukraine. On the Kupiansk front, the Ukrainian Defence Forces repelled six attacks near Synkivka, Kharkiv Oblast, where the Russians tried to break through the defences of Ukrainian troops.
  
  
• On the Lyman front, Ukrainian defenders repelled four attacks near Makiivka, Luhansk Oblast, and Hryhorivka and Vesele, Donetsk Oblast, where Russian forces were trying to advance their tactical position.
  
  
• On the Bakhmut front, Ukrainian Defence Forces repelled four Russian attacks near Andriivka and Klishchiivka, Donetsk Oblast.
  
  
• On the Avdiivka front, Ukrainian defenders repelled four Russian attacks near Avdiivka and another 16 attacks near Pervomaiske and Nevelske in Donetsk Oblast.
  
  
• On the Marinka front, the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to hold back the Russians in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Marinka and Novomykhailivka, Donetsk Oblast, where the Russian armed forces, with the support of aviation, tried to break through the defences of Ukrainian troops 15 times.
  
  
• On the Shakhtarske front, Ukrainian Defence Forces repelled three Russian attacks south of Zolota Nyva and west of Staromaiorsk, Donetsk Oblast.
  
  
• On the Zaporizhzhia front, Ukrainian defenders repelled five attacks near Robotyne in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, where the Russians unsuccessfully tried to regain the lost ground.
  
  
• The Russian forces did not abandon their intention to drive Defence Forces units out of the footholds on the left bank of the Dnipro River. Thus, during the day, the Russians made eight unsuccessful assault operations. Ukrainian soldiers continue to hold their positions and inflict significant losses on the Russians.
  

UK, USA night strikes against Yemen's Houthis targeted their sites for launching drones, missiles at merchant ships in Red Sea – Sunak

The targets of night strikes by Great Britain and the United States against the Yemeni Houthis were their sites for launching drones and missiles at merchant ships in the Red Sea; it was an act of self-defense, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said.

At a press conference on the results of the meeting with President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv, Sunak spoke about the situation in the Red Sea, namely the UK-U.S. alliance carried out strikes against the Houthis in Yemen. He said, this was aimed at destroying the sites from which the Houthis were launching drones and missiles against merchant ships in the Black Sea.

As he said, in order to reduce the military capabilities of the Houthis, targets were chosen very carefully, and force was 

used proportionately.
The British Prime Minister said the actions of the Houthis brought destruction and misfortune, which led to a threat to maritime navigation.

He said that after repeated warnings about the need to stop these attacks, after a speech at the UN, they spoke about the need to maintain freedom of navigation and the need to stop these hostilities. However, none of this happened. That is why today Britain, in particular, resorted to limited steps to defend ourselves. And in the face of this aggression, they will always respect the rule of law, the British Prime Minister said.

As Sunak said, the Great Britain would absolutely like to see de-escalation and restoration of stability in the region. He said over the past few weeks, a significant increase in attacks on commercial vessels has been noticed, which has a negative impact on the global economy.

Russia turns to Africa for migrant workers as labor shortages intensify

Russia adds former Gazprombank executive now fighting for Ukraine to wanted wist

Russia denies IAEA access to parts of occupied Zaporizhzhya NPP

Russian troops continue to deny experts from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) access to the reactor halls at the occupied Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant, the IAEA reported on Jan. 12.

Closing Summary

• The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, and British prime minister, Rishi Sunak, on Friday signed a security accord between the two countries in Kyiv. Zelenskiy described it as an “unprecedented security agreement”. Local media cited him as saying the agreement would remain in effect until Ukraine joined Nato.
  
  
• Rishi Sunak said if the UK wavered in its support of Ukraine it would embolden Vladimir Putin and “his allies in North Korea, Iran and elsewhere”. Giving a press conference alongside Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Kyiv, the prime minister said “our opponents around the world believe that we have neither the patience nor the resources for long wars”.
  
  
• Zelenskiy said on Friday he was more positive now that Ukraine would secure financial aid from the United States than he was last month. “I am viewing this with more positivity than in December, I think we will [get it],” he told a press conference in Kyiv.
  
  
• A senior Ukrainian presidential aide said on Friday he was confident that an amended bill seeking to tighten Ukraine’s mobilisation laws would be passed in the coming days or weeks, despite hitting setbacks this week. Thousands of Ukrainians rushed to enlist immediately after Russia invaded in February 2022, but nearly two years into the war, some men are trying to avoid the fight, Reuters reported.
  
  
• A Russian naval base in Abkhazia, a breakaway territory internationally recognised as part of Georgia, may become operational in 2024, the Russian state news agency RIA quoted Abkhazia’s security council as saying on Friday. Russian and Abkhazian authorities agreed in October that Russia could open a permanent naval base in the town of Ochamchire, Reuters reported.
  
  
• An Asiatic black bear, which was found in an abandoned zoo in eastern Ukraine five months after Russia’s invasion in 2022, arrived at his new permanent home in Scotland on Friday. Yampil, named after the village in the Donetsk region where he was found, was one of only a few out of 200 animals at the zoo to survive, Reuters reports.
  
  
• Poland has been cooperating with allies in a probe into the sabotage of the Nord Stream natural gas pipelines, the minister in charge of Polish intelligence services said, denying a newspaper report that it was hindering investigations. In an interview with Reuters, Tomasz Siemoniak said the country’s prosecutors have been supplying information to European investigators and could allocate more resources to the probe if requested.
  
  
• Russian ex-president Dmitry Medvedev said in a post on Telegram on Friday that deployment of any British military contingent in Ukraine would be a declaration of war against Russia. Responding to British prime minister, Rishi Sunak’s, visit to Kyiv, Medvedev asked how the western public would react if Sunak’s delegation came under fire from cluster munitions, as he said had happened to the southern Russian city of Belgorod.
  
  
• Russian tourists reportedly going on a skiing trip to North Korea will be the first international travellers to visit the country since its borders closed in 2020 amid the global pandemic lockdown. The report, published on Wednesday by the Russian state-run Tass news agency, underscores deepening cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang.