Russian invasion of Ukraine: Day 654

Summary for Saturday, 9th December 2023 - DAY 654

• Ukraine says its forces have repelled 32 enemy attacks in the town of Avdiivka as Russian troops have been inching forward to try to cut supply lines. The head of the military administration in the town, less than 12km from the outskirts of the Moscow-held regional capital of Donetsk, said Russian forces were “pressing on the entire defensive line around the town”.
  
  
• The Kremlin has said that the idea Russia would engage in peace talks with Ukraine on Kyiv’s terms in 2024 was unrealistic. It was responding to a media report that said Washington wanted such a scenario to unfold. The Kremlin spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, called the idea “absolutely unrealistic”.
  
  
• Russia has launched a wave of cruise missiles against Ukraine, killing at least one person and injuring six, as the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, warned of attacks by Moscow this winter on energy infrastructure. Ukrainian air defences shot down 14 of 19 missiles fired by Russia during a morning airstrike, Ukrainian officials said, including those heading for Kyiv.
  
  
• Vladimir Putin has said he will run for re-election in the March 2024 presidential poll, moving the longtime Russian leader a step closer to a fifth term in office. The announcement was widely expected, with Putin’s long-term spokesperson saying in a previous interview: “Putin will be re-elected next year with more than 90% of the vote.”
  
  
• The Ukrainian parliament has approved four bills necessary to start European Union accession talks, including one on national minorities’ rights, a critical demand from Hungary, which opposes Ukraine’s EU bid. The Ukrainian parliament’s website confirmed that President Volodymyr Zelenskiy signed all the bills into law.
  
  
• “We expect that Ukraine’s efforts will be duly appreciated by leaders of the European Union and the corresponding European promises to Ukraine will be fulfilled,” Zelenskiy said. Ukraine, he said, had “done everything expected of us” in taking on EU recommendations.
  
  
• European Union leaders are conscious of how “existential” financial aid is to Ukraine and will honour their commitments, a senior official said, less than a week before a summit where billions in aid for Kyiv hang in the balance. Ahead of the year’s final summit of EU leaders in Brussels, on 14 and 15 December, Hungary has threatened to veto a proposal for the bloc to grant €50bn in budget aid to Kyiv through 2027.
  
  
• The EU’s executive is due to approve next week a legal proposal on using proceeds from Russian assets frozen under sanctions, but doubts in France, Germany and Belgium mean Ukraine would not get the money anytime soon, officials and diplomatic sources said. The draft law is expected on 12 December.
  
  
• Zelenskiy has underscored Kyiv’s need for more air defences and the importance of EU unity in the run-up to a key summit next week. The Ukrainian leader said that during a call with Estonia’s prime minister, Kaja Kallas, the leaders “discussed the importance of maintaining EU political and financial support for Ukraine, as well as EU unity in light of the expected [European Council] summit decisions to open accession negotiations and provide €50bn in support.”
  
  
• Ukraine’s farm ministry has raised its 2023 grain harvest forecast to 59.7m tonnes, saying the country had a “record grain yield”. The total grain and oilseed harvest is expected to reach 81.3m tonnes, the ministry added in a statement.
  

Russian troops press on town of Avdiivka

Pickup trucks and tourniquets bound for Ukraine’s battlefield are stuck in the miles-long line at the border with Poland, leaving components to build drones facing weeks of delays.

Russian opposition figures behind bars in penal colonies or in self-exile abroad vow they will still put up a fight against president Vladimir Putin as he seeks yet another term in office in an election in March.

The Finnish supreme court has blocked the extradition of a Russian neo-Nazi group leader who fought in Ukraine, warning of the risk that he may be subject to demeaning conditions.

Russian American journalist Masha Gessen put on Kremlin’s wanted list

Prominent journalist – who lives in the US – was placed on the list after discussing atrocities committed in Ukraine by Russian forces

ISW: Russian forces capture sewage treatment plant in Avdiivka

Russian forces conducted offensive operations near Avdiivka and confirmed their advance by seizing Avdiivka's sewage treatment plant on 8 December.

• Russian President Vladimir Putin announced his presidential bid for 2024 on 8 December in an obviously staged effort to seem that he was running at the request of Russian servicemen.
  
  
• Putin’s announcement of his presidential bid in a military setting indicates that his campaign may focus on Russia’s war in Ukraine more than ISW previously assessed, although the extent of this focus is unclear at this time.
  
  
• Russian forces conducted a series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of 7-8 December.
  
  
• Imprisoned ardent nationalist and former Russian officer Igor Girkin forecasted on 7 December that there will be "no agreement" between Russia and Ukraine to end the war and "no freeze" of the frontlines in Ukraine.
  
  
• The Russian military has reportedly banned the use of civilian cars for military purposes likely as part of ongoing formalisation efforts, sparking criticisms from Russian milbloggers.
  
  
• The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) is expanding its ability to guard Russian officials and entities abroad likely to better surveil Russian and international actors outside of Russian territory.
  
  
• Russian occupation officials continue efforts to artificially alter the demographic composition of occupied Ukraine.
  
  
• Ukraine’s partners continued to announce military and financial aid packages to Ukraine recently.
  
  
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast and made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
  
  
• Udmurt Republic Head Alexander Brechalov announced on 7 December that the region formed and will soon deploy four new units to fight in Ukraine.
  
  
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated on 8 December that Russia is trying to destroy Ukrainian children’s connection to Ukraine and that swift intervention is necessary to maintain this connection during a speech at the first meeting of the International Coalition for the Return of Ukrainian Children.
  

Avdiivka on verge of falling into Russian control

 The shell shortage forces soldiers like Sergeant Taras “Fizruk”, a 31-year-old mortar gunner, also from the 2nd Battalion, to make impossible life and death decisions.
‘We had ten times more ammunition over summer, and better quality,’ he said. ‘American rounds come in batches of almost identical weights, which makes it easier to correct fire, with very few duds. Now we have shells from all over the world with different qualities and we only get 15 for three days. Last week we got a batch full of duds.’
Instead of firing on Russians as soon as they come within range, they have to wait to be sure they are heading for their positions, and only hit large groups.
‘We should be controlling our sector from 4km away, so we can kill a few hundred Russian soldiers before they get to our infantry and we only take a few wounded,’ he said. ‘But without ammunition we can’t. When it’s two or three soldiers I’m not shooting any more, only when it’s a critical situation, say ten guys close to our infantry. If our rounds aren’t the same weight, the next round will fly two hundred metres past the Russians. And then it’s too late.’

Ukraine condemns Russian plan to hold presidential elections in occupied territories

Kyiv says IOC allowing Russian athletes is ‘encouraging’ war in Ukraine

 The members of the International Olympic Committee Executive Board who made this decision bear responsibility for encouraging Russia and Belarus to continue their armed aggression against Ukraine.

Explosions heard in Kryvyi Rih, missile shot down

Explosions have rung out in the city of Kryvyi Rih, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, during an air-raid warning. It was reported later that a missile had been downed in the Kryvyi Rih District.

Massive fire breaks out in Russian-occupied Makiivka after explosion

A large-scale fire broke out in Russian-occupied Makiivka, Donetsk region, after a powerful explosion.

Local Telegram channels are publishing photos and videos of the event.
According to preliminary reports, an oil depot used by Russian invaders in the war against Ukraine is on fire.

Powerful flames and a column of black smoke from the fire can be seen for many kilometers.



Shortly before the fire started, the invaders announced the operation of their air defense in the Donetsk region, near Makiivka.



It is reported that an oil depot or a Russian military fuel and lubricants depot is on fire.


A massive fire in the occupied Makiivka, December 9, 2023. Photos from social media

On social media, locals write that a powerful explosion occurred before the fire, the origin of which is currently unknown.

In the comments under the video with footage of a massive fire in some local online communities, users write that the Artemis oil depot is probably on fire.
In its turn, the Typical Donetsk Telegram channel published a photo of debris of unknown origin allegedly found in Makiivka.

Unidentified debris allegedly found in Makiivka, December 9, 2023. Photo credits: Typical Donetsk Telegram channel

Last month, an ammunition depot of the Russian army exploded in the temporarily occupied territory of the Donetsk region. This happened on the evening of November 5, in the village of Siedove, near the border with Russia. Powerful explosions were heard in Mariupol and other settlements nearby.

The explosion of a Russian ammunition depot in the village of Siedove, Donetsk region, November 5, 2023. A frame from a video from social media

The settlement, where the Russian military facility was located, is a rear area for the Russian invaders, located on the shore of the Azov Sea, more than 100 kilometers from the front line and 45 kilometers east of Mariupol.



It is currently unknown what weapon systems the Armed Forces of Ukraine used to strike this ammunition depot of the Russian invaders.

2 women killed, 1 man injured in Russian attack on Kupiansk, Kharkiv Oblast

Ukrainian border officials are intercepting fighting-age men who are trekking through mountainous regions to escape the country and avoid conscription

In somewhat related news, the BBC reports it has seen evidence of several cases in which Russia has detained foreign migrants at its border with Finland and coerced them into joining the army rather than being detained and deported

 The practice of coercing people in pre-deportation detention centres to sign contracts for army service in Ukraine is not new, but the numbers swelled as foreign migrants arrived at Russia’s 1,340-km (833-mile) border with Finland.
Finland temporarily closed all eight of its Russian border crossings, accusing Moscow of channelling migrants and asylum seekers there as part of a destabilisation campaign after the government in Helsinki joined Nato earlier this year.
Analysis of court hearings in Karelia, one of three Russian regions bordering Finland, showed that in the past three weeks, 236 people were arrested for staying in Russia without valid visas, destined for deportation. The picture was similar in the other two border regions of Leningrad and Murmansk.
Among those appearing in court in Karelia was a Somali man in his 40s, who was arrested in mid-November, sentenced to a fine of 2,000 roubles (£17) and detained pending deportation – a standard procedure for anyone without an appropriate visa.
Awad and at least a dozen other inmates held in the pre-deportation centre in Petrozavodsk, Karelia’s capital, were approached by military representatives soon after their arrest and were offered “a job for the state”. They were promised good pay, medical care and permission to stay in Russia on completing a one-year army contract.

A group of European Parliament members have urged the European commission, and the Polish government, “to act decisively” and end the blockade of border crossings between Poland and Ukraine by protesting truckers

Such a situation is completely unacceptable; it serves only the interests of the Kremlin and seriously damages the reputation not only of Poland, but also of the European Union on the whole.
We therefore appeal to you … to immediately address the issue to act decisively to end the ongoing blockade of Ukraine due to the Polish lorry drivers’ strike.

Ukrainian officials are pressing on with a campaign to remove Soviet-era monuments as authorities in the capital Kyiv dismantled a statue of a Red Army commander from a central boulevard.

Some of the latest images coming through from Ukraine:

A group of European Parliament members have urged the European commission, and the Polish government, “to act decisively” and end the blockade of border crossings between Poland and Ukraine by protesting truckers.

Such a situation is completely unacceptable; it serves only the interests of the Kremlin and seriously damages the reputation not only of Poland, but also of the European Union on the whole.
We therefore appeal to you … to immediately address the issue to act decisively to end the ongoing blockade of Ukraine due to the Polish lorry drivers’ strike.

Ukrainian defenders repel 12 Russian attacks on Bakhmut front and 11 on Avdiivka front

Ukraine’s Defence Forces repelled 12 Russian attacks on the Bakhmut front and 11 on the Avdiivka front, and a total of 45 combat clashes took place during the day.

• There were no significant changes on the Volyn and Polissia fronts. 
  
  
• On the Sivershchyna and Slobozhanshchyna fronts, the Russians deployed artillery and mortars to fire on about 25 settlements, including Plokhiv, Kliusy, Baranivka, Rozhkovychi, Fotovyzh, Starykove and Volfyne in Sumy Oblast and Ternova, Starytsia and Bochkove in Kharkiv Oblast.
  
  
• On the Kupiansk front, Ukrainian defenders repelled four Russian attacks near the settlements of Synkivka in Kharkiv Oblast and Novoselivska in Luhansk Oblast. About 10 settlements came under artillery and mortar fire, including Dvorichna, Synkivka, Ivanivka, Petropavlivka and Kupiansk in Kharkiv Oblast.
  
  
• Russian forces did not conduct any offensive (assault) operations on the Lyman front. About 10 settlements were affected by Russian artillery and mortar attacks, including Nevske and Bilohorivka in Luhansk Oblast and Torske, Verkhnokamianske, Spirne and Rozdolivka in Donetsk Oblast.
  
  
• On the Bakhmut front, Ukrainian forces repelled 12 Russian attacks near the settlements of Bohdanivka, Ivanivske and Klishchiivka in Donetsk Oblast. 
  
  
• About 10 settlements came under artillery and mortar fire, including Vasiukivka, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Bohdanivka, Klishchiivka, Andriivka and New-York in Donetsk Oblast.
  
  
• On the Avdiivka front, Ukrainian defenders repelled 11 Russian attacks in the areas east of Novobakhmutivka, Avdiivka, Tonenke and Pervomaiske in Donetsk Oblast, where the Russians unsuccessfully tried to break through the Ukrainian defences. About 15 settlements came under artillery and mortar attacks, including Novobakhmutivka, Stepove, Avdiivka, Sieverne, Tonenke and Pervomaiske in Donetsk Oblast.
  
  
• On the Marinka front, Ukraine’s Defence Forces are continuing to hold the Russians back near Marinka, Pobieda and Novomykhailivka in Donetsk Oblast, where the Russians, with air support, launched eight unsuccessful attacks on positions of Ukrainian defenders. The settlements of Marinka, Pobieda, Novomykhailivka, Paraskoviivka, Kostiantynivka and Katerynivka in Donetsk Oblast came under Russian artillery and mortar fire.
  
  
• On the Shakhtarsk front, Ukrainian defenders repelled two Russian attacks, with the Russians trying to push Ukrainian units out of their positions in the vicinity of Staromaiorske in Donetsk Oblast. The Russians launched an airstrike near the settlement of Prechystivka in Donetsk Oblast. About 10 settlements came under artillery and mortar attacks, including Vodiane, Vuhledar, Prechystivka, Zolota Nyva and Urozhaine in Donetsk Oblast.
  
  
• On the Zaporizhzhia front, Ukrainian defenders repelled three Russian attacks near the settlements of Novopokrovka and to the west of Robotyne in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Over 20 settlements were hit by artillery and mortar fire, including Levadne, Novodanylivka, Novopavlivka, Lobkove and Stepove in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and Nikopol in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
  
  
• On the Kherson front, Russian forces shelled the settlements of Kherson, Beryslav, Tiahynka and Ivanivka in Kherson Oblast.
  
  
• Ukrainian defenders continue to hold their positions on the left bank of the Dnipro River, conducting counter-battery operations and striking the Russian rear.
  
  
• Units of Ukraine's Rocket Forces and Artillery struck two oil and lubricant storage points belonging to the Russians.
  

Russia commits genocide against Ukrainian children, Zelenskyy’s top aide says

Russia is erasing any memories of Ukraine from the minds of deported children, the head of the President’s Office said at the first meeting of the International Coalition of Countries for the Return of Ukrainian Children.

“We already have a lot of information about how Russians abduct children, how they become victims of cruel treatment, and how their names are changed,” Yermak stated.  

“Russians are creating systems aimed at erasing any memories of Ukraine in children. They set these children against Ukraine, against our culture, our language. Every day, they saturate them with fakes, misinform them, saying that their parents were killed or that their parents abandoned them and are not looking for them. The living conditions are extremely poor. It is genocide.
And the most dangerous thing is that in the 21st century, there are no real levers of influence, international organizations, mechanisms to bring these children home,” he added.

“It has been almost ten years since occupiers abducted an eight-year-old child. Now, they are a young man or woman.
Children grow up very quickly, and Russia takes away not only their childhood but also their family, country, and nationality,” he stressed. 

Closing Summary

• Ukraine’s first lady, Olena Zelenska, warned that Ukrainians are in “mortal danger” of being left to die if western countries do not continue their financial support. Zelenska made the remarks a day after Republican senators in the US blocked a key aid bill that would have provided more than $60bn worth of support to Ukraine.
  

• The Polish government denied reports that the delivery of military equipment to Ukraine was being hindered by protesting Polish truckers blockading the border. “I categorically deny that such a situation occurred,” said Polish vice-minister of national defence, Marcin Ociepa. “Military convoys that cross the border are convoys escorted by military police.”
  

• Avdiivka, the eastern Ukrainian city which has seen some of the most intense fighting of the war, is on the verge of “imminent collapse” to Russian forces, according to a report. A dispatch in The Times by its former Kyiv correspondent said that Ukrainian troops defending the frontline area are “starved of ammunition” and hamstrung in their attempts to repel the advancing enemy soldiers.
  

• Ukraine condemned Russian plans to hold presidential elections next spring on occupied territory, declaring them “null and void” and pledging to prosecute any observers sent to monitor them. Russia’s upper house set the country’s presidential election this week for next March, and chair Valentina Matviyenko said residents in four occupied Ukrainian regions would be able to vote for the first time.
  

• Olympic chiefs were criticised for allowing Russian and Belarusian athletes to compete next year as neutrals, outside of team events and if they do not actively support the invasion.
  

• The Finnish supreme court has blocked the extradition of a Russian neo-Nazi group leader who fought in Ukraine, warning of the risk that he could be susceptible to inhuman treatment, which is precluded under the European convention on human rights.