Russian invasion of Ukraine: Day 643

Summary for Tuesday, 28th November 2023 - DAY 643

• Russian forces are intensifying their drive to capture Avdiivka, trying to advance on all sides, according to Vitaliy Barabash, the head of Avdiivka’s military administration. “The Russians have opened up two more sectors from which they have begun making assaults – in the direction of Donetsk … and in the so-called industrial zone. The enemy is attempting to storm the city from all directions.”
  
  
• Hurricane-force winds, snowfall and flooding have lashed Russia’s southern regions of Dagestan, Krasnodar and Rostov, as well as the occupied Ukrainian territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and Crimea. In Ukraine, the severe weather killed at least five people and cut power to almost 1,500 towns and villages after storms dumped up to 25cm (10in) of snow in some places. A further four people were reported dead in Moldova. Freezing temperatures were forecast for Tuesday morning. Russia’s energy ministry said power cuts affected 1.9 million people.
  
  
• Weather forecasts show downpours were continuing late on Monday in the Crimean port of Sevastopol and Sochi on Russia’s Black Sea coast, amid hopes the storm’s impact might deliver a setback to the Russian war effort.
  
  
• The UK Ministry of Defence has described as “plausible” Ukrainian estimates of Russian casualties – the number killed or wounded – running at a daily average of almost 1,000 in November. This would, on the face of it, make November 2023 one of the most difficult months for Russian forces, with many of its losses coming from its assault on Avdiivka – although figures on Ukrainian losses were not provided.
  
  
• The US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, is attending a Nato session in Brussels on Tuesday and Wednesday. It will include the first foreign minister-level meeting of the Nato-Ukraine Council, a body created to improve cooperation and coordination and help prepare Kyiv for membership. “Allies will continue to support Ukraine’s self-defence until Russia stops its war of aggression,” said Jim O’Brien, the top US diplomat for Europe.
  
  
• Ukraine will become a member of Nato subject to reforms after the war, the military alliance’s secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, has said. Nato states still agreed that full membership remained impossible in the midst of war, even while ways to move Ukraine and Nato closer continued, he added.
  
  
• The Chechen ruler, Ramzan Kadyrov, has said another 3,000 of his fighters are ready to go to and fight in Ukraine for Russia. Kadyrov is suspected to be ill, and his soldiers are frequently derided online for appearing to be mostly concerned with posting staged videos of themselves on TikTok. There have also been several Chechen armed formations choosing to fight on the side of Ukraine rather than Russia.
  
  
• Exports to Russia from Turkey of civilian goods used by the military such as microchips and telescopic sights are increasing, causing concern to the US and the EU.
  
  
• Ancient Scythian artefacts from museums in Russian-occupied Crimea have been returned to Ukraine after a legal dispute over ownership rights during which they spent almost a decade in the Netherlands, a Ukrainian museum said.
  
  
• Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, says he plans to travel to Nato member North Macedonia this week to attend a conference of the 57-member Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), which includes Russia. Bulgaria, another Nato member that borders North Macedonia, said it had issued permission for Lavrov to fly through its airspace.
  
  
• Moscow does not have plans to expand its territory any further in Europe, the Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, insisted in response to remarks by the US defence secretary last week that Putin would not stop at Ukraine if he was victorious.
  

Ten people have died in snowstorms in Ukraine

On Tuesday morning, almost 100,000 people were still without power on the Crimean peninsula and some still had no water supply

Russian court extends detention of WSJ reporter Evan Gershkovich

 Evan has now been unjustly imprisoned for nearly 250 days, and every day is a day too long.
The accusations against him are categorically false and his continued imprisonment is a brazen and outrageous attack on a free press, which is critical for a free society.
We continue to stand with Evan and call for his immediate release.

Avdiivka Drone Video Shows Rows of Wasted Russian Vehicles: 'Tank Cemetery'

Destroyed and damaged Russian tanks litter the area around the embattled town of Avdiivka, new footage appears to show, as Moscow's troops close in on the strategic eastern Ukrainian settlement.

A brief clip, which appears to be drone footage, looks to show Russian military vehicles scattered across the countryside. Social media accounts widely sharing the video located the clip in the region around Avdiivka, a hotspot of clashes between Russian and Ukrainian forces in Donetsk.
It wasn't possible to independently verify when and where the footage was filmed, and Newsweek has reached out to the Russian defense ministry for comment via email.
The Donbas town of Avdiivka has spent much of the past decade on the front line between Ukrainian and Russian — or Moscow-backed — forces in the east of the country.

A fragment of a destroyed Russian tank on the roadside on the outskirts of Kharkiv on February 26, 2022. Destroyed and damaged Russian tanks litter the area around the embattled eastern Ukrainian town of Avdiivka, new footage appears to show. Sergey BOBOK/AFP via Getty Images

Moscow's forces began a major push around the town in early October, with waves of attacks appearing to come in ebbs and flows. Avdiivka has become the focus of Russia's main offensive efforts after months of Ukrainian pushes along a largely static front line in the south and east of the country.
Ukrainian commanders reported a renewed effort around Avdiivka from Russian troops last week, although the efforts likely came with "weaker mechanized capabilities than in the previous offensive waves that occurred in October," the U.S. think tank, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), said on Friday.

https://twitter.com/Reevesity/status/1729114644130975983?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1729114644130975983%7Ctwgr%5E869cb9c147b6cefda3e96ea13b445241fbb0ccc9%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.newsweek.com%2Fukraine-avdiivka-drone-video-russia-tanks-armored-vehicles-donetsk-1847469

Russian tank and armored vehicle losses are thought to have been significant around Avdiivka, with fierce battles seeing high casualty rates. The past six weeks have "likely seen some of the highest Russian casualty rates of the war so far," the British defense ministry said on Monday, adding that this is down to Russia's designs on Avdiivka.
However, Russia has made creeping advances around the heavily fortified town, prying territory away from Ukrainian control. Although Russian forces did not make any confirmed advances on Monday, the Kremlin ploughed on with operations around Avdiivka, the ISW said in its latest assessment.
"The enemy is attempting to storm the city from all directions," Vitaly Barabash, the head of Avdiivka's military administration, added on Monday, according to media reports. Ukraine came up against around 30 Russian attacks around Avdiivka on Tuesday, Colonel Oleksandr Shtupun, a spokesperson for Ukraine's Tavria grouping of forces, told Ukrainian media, adding that Russia was looking to advance in six directions around the town.
Ukrainian fighters are "firmly holding the defense" around Avdiivka, Ukrainian commander Oleksandr Tarnavskyi said on Tuesday. Russian forces continue to attack Avdiivka, the General Staff of Ukraine's armed forces added in a statement posted to social media on Tuesday.

A major ransomware gang suspected of being involved in attacks in 71 countries across the globe has been dismantled in Ukraine, Europol has said.

More than 20 investigators from Norway, France, Germany and the US were deployed to Kyiv with 30 properties searched in the regions of Kyiv, Cherkasy, Rivne and Vinnytsia.
A 32-year-old, believed to be the ringleader, and four of his alleged accomplices were arrested.
The gang were known for specifically targeting large corporations in what has become a digital-day scourge for businesses and some government organisations.


Europol headquarters in The Hague, the Netherlands. Photograph: Bjorn Wylezich/Alamy

Among those subjected to highly damaging ransomware attacks in the past few years include Ireland’s health service and Hackney council in London in 2020, which was forced to spend £12m rebuilding its technical infrastructure as a result.
Ransomware attackers penetrate organisations, encrypt their data and then seek financial compensation for its safe return.
In a statement, Europol said investigators had determined that “perpetrators had encrypted over 250 servers belonging to large corporations resulting in losses exceeding several hundreds of millions of euros”.
It added: “Those responsible for breaking into networks did so through techniques including brute force attacks, SQL injections and sending phishing emails with malicious attachments in order to steal usernames and passwords.”
The operation involved police forces and national security agencies in seven countries including the public prosecutors or police in Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, France, Ukraine, Germany, Switzerland, and the US along with the justice department at the European Commission and Europol in The Hague.

Wife of Ukrainian military intelligence chief poisoned

Russian-occupied building in Tokmak targeted

Residents in occupied Tokmak, Zaporizhzhya Oblast, reported a strike on a building seized by Russian invasion forces after there were explosions in the city center, the Mayor of Russian-occupied Melitopol, Ivan Fedorov, said on Telegram on Nov. 28.

Russians advance 2km toward Avdiivka Coke and Chemical plant, greatest gain since spring, but losses staggering

Russian forces have made further small advances in recent days on the northern axis of a pincer movement to surround the Donbas town of Avdiivka, the latest UK Defense Ministry intelligence report of Nov. 28 says.

Sevastopol Bay under such heavy Russian EW cover it's visible from space

During Ukrainian drone attacks, the russian occupiers turn on very powerful electronic warfare systems that create "lens flares" on SAR satellite images

Russian Patriarch Kirill complains about migrants who don't speak Russian

Vladimir Gundyayev, Patriarch Kirill of the Russian Orthodox Church, has complained of an influx of migrants into Russia who do not speak Russian and, he claimed, are involved in criminal activities.

Ukraine says it will boycott the OSCE meeting in the North Macedonian capital, Skopje, after the invitation of the Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, who has said he plans to attend

The backlash against the decision to allow the Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, to attend the OSCE meeting in Skopje is growing

 Lavrov’s attendance trivialises the atrocious crimes that Russia continues to commit. Lavrov’s place is at a special tribunal, not the OSCE table.

Ukraine confirms poisoning of intelligence chief's wife

Here are some of the latest images from the newswires:

Finland will close its entire border with Russia to travellers for the next two weeks to try to halt a flow of asylum seekers to the Nordic country, the government has said.

Nato allies have put pressure on Turkey to finally approve Sweden’s stalled bid to join the military alliance

Russian shells struck a residential building and private houses on Tuesday, killing four people and injuring at least five, local Ukrainian officials have said.

Europe’s largest nuclear plant faces power disruption amid conflict

The Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) in Ukraine, which is the largest nuclear power plant in Europe, experienced a major safety and security incident after losing connection to its primary off-site power source. Consequently, the facility had to depend on backup power for reactor cooling amidst the continuing military conflict, highlighting the precarious nuclear safety and security conditions at the site. Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi has expressed deep concern about the situation. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has been closely monitoring the situation, urging all parties involved in the conflict to respect the precautionary measures required to ensure the nuclear power plant’s safety. The potential consequences of any failure in maintaining a secure and stable operational environment at ZNPP could be disastrous, not just for Ukraine, but for neighboring countries as well, emphasizing the need for urgent collaborative efforts in addressing this critical issue.

Rockets and security concerns

Specialists at the ZNPP heard several rockets, seemingly launched from a close distance to the plant by a nearby Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS). Grossi underscored the added worry of potential military dangers and the susceptibility of off-site power sources that can be impacted by attacks happening far from the site. In response to this alarming occurrence, heightened security measures have been implemented to fortify the plant structure and protect onsite personnel from potential harm. Furthermore, additional protocols are being established to safeguard off-site power sources and ensure the facility’s continuous operation despite adversities.

Disconnection and power stabilization

The disconnection happened due to a short circuit approximately 100 kilometers north of the plant, leading to a cut in the link to its remaining single 750 kilovolt (kV) power line. As a result of the unexpected incident, the plant’s operations team had to undertake immediate measures to stabilize the power supply and minimize any potential damage. The local authorities and utility companies were also notified, and they quickly deployed their teams to assess the situation and work on restoring the power connection as efficiently as possible.

Backup power and safety concerns

At present, ZNPP is obtaining external power from its only available 330 kV backup power line. This places the nuclear power plant in a precarious state, as any disruption to this single power source could potentially lead to operational challenges and safety concerns. It is crucial for the management at ZNPP to prioritize securing additional backup power supply options and implementing redundant power systems to ensure the facility’s safety and continuous functionality.

Emergency diesel generator issue

Additionally, an emergency diesel generator started up but was shut down manually after ten minutes, suggesting a possible problem with its electrical setup. This raises concerns about the reliability and safety of the backup power system in emergency situations. Investigations are currently underway to identify and rectify the underlying issues to prevent future occurrences.

Repair efforts and uncertainty

With repair efforts ongoing for the 750 kV line, it remains uncertain when the connection will be re-established. In the meantime, authorities are working closely with power distribution companies to find alternative solutions and minimize the impact on consumers. Until the connection is restored, customers may experience intermittent disruptions, and they have been advised to stay updated on the progress and prepare for potential outages.

Resilience and communication in times of conflict

Throughout the conflict, ZNPP has faced multiple power loss incidents and has had to rely on emergency diesel generators to preserve crucial nuclear safety and security measures, including reactor cooling. Despite these challenges, the plant’s staff has remained steadfast in maintaining the safety and integrity of the facility, working tirelessly to ensure that potential risks are mitigated. Communication with the appropriate regulatory bodies has been crucial in directing efforts to maintain operational safety and to address any emerging issues in a timely manner.

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Closing summary

• The EU has agreed to more than quadruple its spending on training Ukrainian soldiers to battle Russia, investing close to an extra €200m (£173m), AFP reported.
  
  
• Nato’s secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, urged members of the alliance to “stay the course” in supporting Ukraine in its war against Russia’s invasion, Reuters reported. “It’s our obligation to ensure that we provide Ukraine with the weapons they need,” Stoltenberg told reporters as he arrived for a gathering of foreign ministers from Nato countries at the alliance’s headquarters in Brussels.
  
  
• A Ukrainian military intelligence official has confirmed that Marianna Budanova, the wife of Ukraine’s intelligence head, Kyrylo Budanov, had been poisoned and had been undergoing treatment in a hospital. Her poisoning was reported earlier by Ukrainian media outlets, which cited unnamed intelligence sources.
  
  
• Germany’s chancellor, Olaf Scholz, has said military and financial support for Ukraine is of “existential importance” to Europe. In a speech to parliament, he was quoted by AFP as saying: “We will continue with this support as long as it is necessary. This support is of existential importance. For Ukraine … but also for us in Europe. None of us want to imagine what even more serious consequences it would have for us if Putin won this war.”
  
  
• Moscow’s Lefortovo district court extended the pre-trial detention of the Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich for two months until 30 January 2024, the court’s press service said.
  
  
• According to AFP, the caretaker Dutch prime minister, Mark Rutte, is the clear frontrunner to become the next head of Nato. Multiple diplomats put the veteran well ahead of other hopefuls – including the Estonian prime minister, Kaja Kallas, and Latvia’s top diplomat, Krišjānis Kariņš – to take over next year from Jens Stoltenberg.