Russian invasion of Ukraine: Day 547

Summary for Thursday, 24th August 2023 - DAY 547

Good morning

• Russia’s aviation authority has said Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, who launched an abortive mutiny in June, and top Wagner commander Dmitry Utkin were on board a private jet en route from Moscow to St Petersburg when it crashed near the village of Kuzhenkino in the Tver region on Wednesday. All 10 people on board the plane – seven passengers and three crew members – have died, according to Russia’s emergencies ministry.
  
  
• Flightradar24 online tracking showed the Embraer Legacy 600 (plane number RA-02795) dropped off the radar at 6.11pm Moscow time. An unverified video clip posted to social media showed a plane resembling a private jet falling out of the sky. Another unverified clip showed burning wreckage on the ground.
  
  
• The cause of the crash was not immediately clear, but Prigozhin’s allies quickly accused the Russian defence ministry of assassinating him. Grey Zone, a Telegram channel with more than 500,000 subscribers linked to Wagner, hailed him a hero and a patriot who had died at the hands of unidentified people it called “traitors to Russia”.
  
  
• Russian investigators opened a criminal investigation. Unnamed sources told Russian media they believed the plane had been shot down by one or more surface-to-air missiles, according to Reuters. Neither Reuters nor the Guardian could confirm that.
  
  
• The other five passengers were named as Sergey Propustin, Evgeniy Makaryan, Aleksandr Totmin, Valeriy Chekalov and Nikolay Matuseev. The crew were named as Commander Aleksei Levshin, co-pilot Rustam Karimov and flight attendant Kristina Raspopova.
  
  
• In addition to Utkin, Prigozhin had been accompanied on the plane by a cameraman, Wagner’s logistics manager, and Prigozhin’s personal security detail, according to Fontanka, a St Petersburg news outlet that has covered Prigozhin’s operations extensively.
  
  
• The plane showed no sign of problems until a precipitous drop in its final 30 seconds, according to flight-tracking data. It made a “sudden downward vertical”, said Ian Petchenik of Flightradar24. Within about 30 seconds it plummeted more than 8,000 feet from its cruising altitude of 28,000 feet. “Whatever happened, happened quickly,” Petchenik said.
  
  
• The type of jet has a good safety record, with only one recorded accident in more than 20 years of service, and that was not related to mechanical failure. Embraer said it was aware of a plane crash in Russia involving a Legacy 600 aircraft but it did not have further information about the case and had not been providing support services for the jet since 2019, when the plane was placed under international sanctions.
  
  
• There was little surprise abroad over Prigozhin’s apparent death. After a briefing on the incident, the US president, Joe Biden, said: “I don’t know for a fact what happened. But I’m not surprised … There is not much that happens in Russia that Putin is not behind, but I don’t know enough to know the answer.”
  
  
• Russia meanwhile has also relieved Gen Sergei Surovikin of his command of the Russian aerospace forces, in the highest-level sacking yet of a military commander after Prigozhin’s abortive mutiny. Surovikin was seen as an ally of Wagner in the defence ministry and questions had been asked about whether he or other senior commanders aided the mutiny or had prior knowledge of Prigozhin’s plans.
  
  
• A Russian military pilot has reportedly defected with his helicopter to Ukraine after a six-month intelligence operation. A Russian military blogger said a helicopter crossed the border with three people on board “a couple of weeks ago” but claimed the aircraft had lost its way. Ukrainian officials appeared to confirm that the aircraft had landed in Ukraine but did not give any further details.
  

Kremlin silent on reported death of Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin in jet crash

Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, said on Telegram that “no matter what caused the plane crash, everyone will see it as an act of vengeance and retribution” by the Kremlin, and “the Kremlin wouldn’t really stand in the way of that.”

Who are the other Wagner group leaders presumed dead in plane crash?

Those said to have died alongside Yevgeny Prigozhin include Dmitry Utkin, whose call sign was ‘Wagner’

Air strike injures seven people in Dnipro

There is a little more detail now on the seven people wounded early on Thursday in a Russian missile strike on the south-eastern Ukrainian city of Dnipro

UK Intelligence reveals why Putin went to headquarters in Rostov

UK Defence Intelligence has stated that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin made a rare visit to the headquarters of the Southern Military District in Rostov, 160 kilometres from the front, to demonstrate his power.

• The day before, UK intelligence reported that Russia would not be able to transport equipment across damaged bridges in the south of Ukraine.
  
  
• Earlier, UK intelligence suggested that the drone attack on the airfield in Soltsy, Novgorod Oblast, where the Tu-22M3 strategic nuclear bomber was destroyed, could have been carried out from Russian territory.
  
  
• UK intelligence also called the emergence of a new Russian military unit very likely, as Russia is trying to free up more experienced units for combat operations in key areas in Ukraine.
  
  
• At the same time, UK intelligence reported that Ukraine's offensive in the south was successful, while Russia's in Kharkiv Oblast was not.
  

The Embraer executive jet model that crashed, apparently with the Wagner group chief, Yevgeny Prigozhin, onboard, has only recorded one accident in over 20 years of service, and that was not related to mechanical failure.

A Reuters reporter at the crash site this morning saw men stretchering black body bags, the agency reports.

The Republican presidential candidates vying to be the leading alternative to frontrunner Donald Trump debated the issue of US support for Ukraine since Russia’s invasion.

At least one person was killed and 16 wounded in Russian attacks across Ukraine on Thursday

Analysis: Is Yevgeny Prigozhin really dead? Not everyone is convinced

Alternative theories abound, fuelled by his reappearance after being reported killed in a 2019 plane crash in Africa

Presumed death of Prigozhin does not 'make us feel calmer', Lithuania’s president says

Here is a summary of today's developments

• Joe Biden has strongly suggested Vladimir Putin’s involvement in the apparent death of Yevgeny Prigozhin in a plane crash, as Ukrainian officials interpreted the incident as a warning to Russian “elites” and flowers were laid for the late Wagner chief outside the organisation’s St Petersburg headquarters.
  
  
• Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, has said Kyiv had nothing to do with the presumed death of Prigozhin.
  
  
• An early morning missile strike injured seven people in the Ukrainian city of Dnipro, the governor of Dnipropetrovsk region, Serhiy Lisak, said on Thursday.
  
  
• France said on Thursday there were “reasonable doubts” about the cause of the plane crash that presumably killed Prigozhin.
  
  
• Norway has also decided to donate combat aircraft to Ukraine, the Norwegian broadcaster TV2 reported on Thursday, citing unnamed sources.
  
  
• The presumed death of Prigozhin follows a pattern of “unclarified” fatalities in Russia, Germany’s foreign minister said on Thursday, adding that it was no coincidence that focus had turned to the Kremlin for answers.
  

Reports of fighting, explosions in occupied Crimea as Ukrainian special forces raid Russians

Sounds of battle were heard near the village of Mayak on Crimea's Cape Tarkhankut early on the morning of Aug. 24, with Ukrainian intelligence sources later revealing Ukrainian that special forces had carried out a daring commando raid on the Russian-occupied peninsula.
Ukrainian intelligence sources told Radio Liberty project Krym.Realii that the raid, which involved naval and air assets took place at around 5 a.m.
While details remain scarce, the village of Mayak is home to a base of Russia's 3rd Radio Regiment of the Aerospace Forces, according to Krym.Realii. There is also reportedly a Nebo-M and Kasta-2E2 radar node on the Tarkhankut Peninsula with air defense positions deployed along the perimeter, suggesting Ukraine may have engaged Russian military sites in the region. Neither side has officially commented on the reported incident as of yet.
Later on Aug. 24 video of parts of the raid started circulating on social media, with the sounds of gunfire and pictures of Ukrainian special forces soldiers with a Ukrainian flag.
The Defense Intelligence agency of Ukraine’s Defense Ministry, known by its Ukrainian acronym HUR, then released a statement on the raid:
"Overnight on Aug. 24, an operation of the GUR of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine took place, with support from the Ukrainian Navy, in temporarily occupied Crimea. Special units on watercraft landed on the shore in the area of the settlements of ​​Olenivka and Mayak.
“During the execution of the mission, Ukrainian forces engaged in combat with the units of the occupier. As a result, the enemy suffered losses among personnel, and enemy equipment was destroyed. Also, the state flag flew again in the Ukrainian Crimea. All goals and tasks were completed.
“At the end of the special operation, Ukrainian forces left the scene without casualties. The occupation administration of Crimea does not comment on the events, despite the mass appeals of local residents. The only message refers to supposedly ‘destruction of munitions according to a set schedule.’
“The Ukrainian Defense Forces will continue to assist the occupiers in destroying ammunition, equipment and manpower."
Earlier, on Aug. 23, Telegram news channels reported a powerful explosion in Crimea. An NV intelligence source said that Ukrainian forces had hit an air defense system near the village of Olenivka on the Tarkhankut Peninsula.
Mariupol mayor's advisor Petro Andriushchenko and Crimean Wind Telegram channel reported that a Russian Bastion coastal missile system had been hit. They also reported the damage to radar stations on Cape Tarkhankut.
Later, The HUR announced the destruction of a Russian S-400 Triumph system. Also, according to the South Operational Command, three S-300 launchers were damaged in Kherson Oblast earlier.

Russia has extended the detention of Wall Street Journal correspondent Evan Gershkovich by three months, defying pleas for the release of the reporter arrested on the job in March.

Ukrainian special forces reportedly ‘pinned down’ during night raid in Crimea by security guard in underwear

Prigozhin joins list of Russian elites who died in suspicious ways

Wagner Group Leader Yevgeny Prigozhin has joined a growing list of Russian elites who have died under suspicious circumstances since the beginning of the war in Ukraine.

The string of suspicious deaths coincides with the ongoing war in Ukraine and a period of heightened political stress in the Kremlin. On July 9th, a Wikipedia page appeared online tracking the deaths.
Due to a lack of verifiable information, it remains unclear whether the string of recent deaths among Russian elites is indeed due to foul play or whether they were merely coincidences that lend well to conspiracy theories.

Alleged Death of Yevgeny Prigozhin

On Wednesday, Russian media outlets reported that Prigozhin was killed in a plane crash during a flight between Moscow and Saint Petersburg. He had appeared that same week in Africa in what was his first video address since his mercenary company Wagner Group staged a mutiny in June.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has made no public mention of Prigozhin’s demise. Once a staunch ally of the Russian president, Prigozhin became a threat to Putin’s political position after his mercenaries seized the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don and threatened to march on Moscow back in June. Wagner Group relented after a deal was brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, but the aura of Putin’s indomitability was diminished by the apparent rebellion.

Speculation now abounds concerning Prigozhin’s death. Ukrainian presidential aide Mykhailo Podolyak shares the sentiments of many analysts who believe Prigozhin’s death was the result of a political assassination. Podolyak said that Prigozhin’s death was “a signal from Putin to Russia’s elites ahead of the 2024 elections. ‘Beware! Disloyalty equals death.”
According to information provided by Russian aviation authorities, Prigozhin was accompanied by nine other individuals when the plane crashed. Among them was Dmitry Utkin, credited with coining the mercenary group’s name. Additionally, Valeriy Chekalov, thought to have played a pivotal role in Wagner Group’s financial operations, was identified among the passengers.

Deaths of Russian Elites

Whether or not the deaths of Russian business elites are truly deserving of suspicion, it cannot be denied that a significant number of them have died over the course of the past year.

The “mystery deaths,” as Wikipedia calls them, began in January and February 2022 just prior to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. Leonid Shulman and Alexander Tyulakov, both directors at Russia’s state-owned energy giant Gazprom, were found dead during the first months of the year. Both men had apparently committed suicide.
Igor Nosov, a former Russian official, also died in February after suffering a stroke. At the end of that same month, Mikhail Watford, an oil and gas tycoon of Ukrainian origin, was found dead in the UK.
Russian oligarchs were also found dead under more unusual circumstances in March and April. The body of Vasily Melnikov, the CEO of a medical firm, was found next to the corpses of his wife and two sons all of whom had been stabbed to death.
In April, Vladislav Avayev, an ex-Kremlin official, was found dead in his multi-million dollar apartment in Moscow. His wife and thirteen-year-old daughter were likewise discovered dead at the scene. All three had sustained gunshot wounds in what was pronounced to be a murder-suicide.

Hangovers and shamans?

By far the most bizarre death of the Russian oligarchs was that of Alexander Subbotin, who died in May last year.

The billionaire oligarch was found dead in the basement of a shaman’s home in the city of Mytishchi, just northeast of Moscow. Subbotin traveled to the shaman’s home “in a state of severe alcoholic and drug intoxication the day before,” said Russian media outlet TASS.
According to TASS, Subbotin went to see the shaman for a hangover cure. Russian media reported that his body was discovered in a basement used for “Jamaican voodoo rituals.” A criminal investigation into Subbotin’s death was opened by Russian authorities after the body was found.

The oligarchs’ deaths continue

In December 2022, Pavel Antonov, a Russian lawmaker and successful businessman, who made his fortune selling sausages, died in a hotel in India. He was reportedly killed after falling from a third-floor hotel window.
During the summer, Antonov had denied criticizing Putin’s war in Ukraine after a message appeared on his WhatsApp account. He was not the only Russian oligarch to die in India. In the same hotel in the state of Odisha, another Russian guest reportedly died of a heart stroke.

Explanations

A clear and forthcoming explanation for the strange fatalities is unlikely to emerge anytime soon. Some news outlets have pointed out that a significant number of those Russian business elites who were found dead had been critical of Putin since the beginning of the war in Ukraine.

Prigozhin’s death is undoubtedly the most consequential among the Russian elites who have met their demise since last year as it remains to be seen how Wagner Group will operate without its late chief.