Russian invasion of Ukraine: Day 675

Summary for Thursday, 30th December 2023 - DAY 675

• Ukraine launched air attacks on southern Russia’s Belgorod and Bryansk regions on Friday, with Russian officials saying air defences destroyed almost 20 rockets and drones. Belgorod’s governor said one person was killed and four injured in the region, while Russia’s defence ministry said its anti-aircraft units had destroyed 13 Ukrainian rockets. The governor of Bryansk region said six Ukrainian drones had been downed.
  
  
• On Friday morning, Russia launched a huge wave of missile strikes on Ukrainian cities, including the capital, in what Ukraine’s defence minister called the biggest air attack of the nearly two-year-old war. At least 30 civilians were killed and 160 injured.
  
  
• The Ukrainian air force said it shot down 87 cruise missiles and 27 drones of a total 158 aerial “targets” fired by Russia. Kyiv’s defence minister, Rustem Umerov, said it was the “most massive air attack of this war”, which began in February 2022, and involved 18 strategic bombers. The army chief, Gen Valerii Zaluzhnyi, said infrastructure and industrial and military facilities had been targeted.
  
  
• Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Russia launched about 110 missiles in the attack. “Today, Russia used nearly every type of weapon in its arsenal,” the Ukrainian president said on social media. “Russian terror must and will lose.”
  
  
• Poland’s armed forces said an unknown airborne object, which they identified as a Russian missile, entered the country’s airspace from the direction of Ukraine for less than three minutes. “It was monitored by us on radars and left the airspace,” said Poland’s defence chief, Gen Wiesław Kukuła. The object penetrated about 40km (25 miles), Poland said, adding that Nato radar also confirmed the object left Polish airspace. The Russian charge d’affaires, summoned to the Polish foreign ministry, said Warsaw had provided no evidence of a missile entering its airspace.
  
  
• At a hastily convened meeting of the UN security council, most council members – including the US, France and Britain – condemned the attacks. “Tragically, 2023 is ending as it began, with devastating violence against the people of Ukraine,” UN assistant secretary general Khaled Khiari said after briefing the council on the attacks.
  
  
• Britain will send about 200 air-defence missiles to Ukraine after the Russian strikes, the UK defence minister said on Friday. Grant Shapps posted on X (formerly Twitter) that Britain was “moving rapidly to bolster Ukraine’s air defence in the wake of Putin’s murderous airstrikes”. The prime minister, Rishi Sunak, said on social media: “These widespread attacks on Ukraine’s cities show Putin will stop at nothing to achieve his aim of eradicating freedom and democracy.”
  
  
• A Ukrainian strike on a residential building in the Russian city of Belgorod left one person dead, the regional governor said late on Friday. The attack killed one person and wounded four others, Vyacheslav Gladkov said, adding that the city’s water supply system was damaged. The Russian defence ministry said air defence systems destroyed a total of 13 missiles over the region, which borders Ukraine.
  
  
• The US president, Joe Biden, demanded Congress “step up” and overcome divisions on sending aid to Ukraine, saying the massive Russian air attack demonstrated that the Kremlin hoped to “obliterate” the pro-western country. Biden said in a statement: “Unless Congress takes urgent action in the new year, we will not be able to continue sending the weapons and vital air defence systems Ukraine needs to protect its people. Congress must step up and act without any further delay.”
  
  
• Ukrainian officials urged the country’s western allies to provide it with more air defences to protect itself against aerial attacks such as Friday’s. Their appeals have come as signs of war fatigue strain efforts to keep support in place.
  
  
• Russia has suffered huge human and material losses in Ukraine and its army will emerge weakened from the conflict, a senior German military figure said in an interview published on Friday. Christian Freuding, who oversees the German army’s support for Kyiv, said: “The Russian armed forces will emerge from this war weakened, both materially and in terms of personnel.”
  

Ukraine attacks Russia’s Belgorod and Bryansk regions

Explosions and fires reported in centre of Belgorod due to mistake of Russian air defence

Explosions were heard in Belgorod, Russia, on 30 December, and wreckage fell in the city centre after the work of Russian air defence.

Ukraine Strikes Back: Russian City In Flames After Drone Attack

Russia starts building naval base in occupied Abkhazia

Russia has started constructing a naval base in occupied Abkhazia; the Russian Federation has already begun infrastructure work in the Ochamchira District and has started transferring warships.

• In early October, Aslan Bzhania, the so-called president of unrecognised Abkhazia, said that a new permanent base of the Russian Navy in the Ochamchira District and the corresponding "agreement" with the Russian Federation have already been signed.
  

• The deputy speaker of the Georgian Parliament then stated that the Parliament of Georgia is not going to judge Russia's intentions.
  

Poland was renewing a search operation for elements of a suspected Russian rocket on Saturday, which it said had violated the country’s airspace on Friday morning, the Polish army said.

Moscow’s aerial bombardment of Ukraine has left 32 dead

On Saturday morning the governor of the Bryansk region in Russia, adjoining Ukraine, said a child had been killed in strikes on “civilian objects” in two villages.

The Kyiv mayor, Vitali Klitschko, said yesterday’s attack was the deadliest one yet for Kyiv in terms of civilian casualties

32 drones shot down over Russia, says Moscow

Sharp rise in Russian deaths due to 'degradation' of military quality

The increase in daily averages, as reported by the Ukrainian authorities, almost certainly reflects the degradation of Russia’s forces and its transition to a lower quality, high quantity mass army since the “partial mobilisation” of reservists in September 2022.
It will likely take Russia five to 10 years to rebuild a cohort of highly trained and experienced military units.
If casualties continue at the current rate through the next year, by 2025 Russia will have sustained over half a million personnel killed and wounded over three years of war. This is compared to the Soviet Union’s 70,000 casualties in the nine-year Soviet-Afghan war.

At least 39 people were killed in Friday’s strikes, Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said.

Ten people including a child were killed and 45 injured by Ukrainian strikes on the centre of the Russian provincial capital of Belgorod on Saturday

The number of people killed by a Ukrainian strike in the Russian city of Belgorod has risen to 14, with 108 injured

Here is a summary of today's events so far:

• Russia’s Ministry of Defence has hinted at retaliation to Ukraine’s shelling of Belgorod. The number of people killed by a Ukrainian strike in the Russian city of Belgorod has risen to 14, with 108 injured, Russia’s emergencies ministry said on Saturday.
  
  
• It appears Ukrainian forces had struck military targets in Belgorod in response to Russian bombardment of Ukrainian cities the previous day. At least 39 people were killed in Friday’s strikes, Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said. Ukrainian forces have called it the most ferocious airstrike launched by Russia since the beginning of the full-scale invasion.
  
  
• Russia experienced a sharp rise in the number of killed and wounded troops in 2023, according to the UK’s Ministry of Defence. In its daily intelligence briefing, the MoD said the average daily number of Russian casualties (killed and wounded) had risen by almost 300 a day compared with 2022.
  
  
• Moscow is not going to give an explanation for a missile in Polish airspace until it is provided with “hard evidence” it was Russian, said Andrei Ordash, Russia’s chargé d’affaires in Poland, after being summoned to the Polish foreign ministry. Poland’s armed forces said an unknown airborne object, which they identified as a Russian missile, entered the country’s airspace from the direction of Ukraine for less than three minutes.
  

Assistance to Ukraine will not only continue, but also increase, – Deputy Head of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence

In the past 2023, the Kremlin failed to achieve any goals in the war against Ukraine. This was stated on the FREEDOM TV channel by the Deputy Head of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence, Head of the Permanent Delegation of Ukraine to the NATO Parliamentary Assembly Egor Chernev.

“Because those few tactical victories that they had on the battlefield this year, for quite a long time, cannot be assessed as any achievement of strategic goals. But Putin himself says that the goals have not been achieved, and they are going to continue to achieve the goals of the so-called “NWO” on the territory of Ukraine. I don’t understand where Putin and the Kremlin are coming from; apparently, this is such bravado and intimidation of our partners that he is ready to go to the end, is ready to go further and continue the war,” he said.

But, according to Chernev, this intimidation had the exact opposite effect.

“I think that, by and large, Putin’s press conference influenced the position of the European Union. And you saw how our partners in the European Union became more active at the end of the year. Both Germany and the EU itself. And Borrell recently spoke out that Ukraine needs help, it is necessary to strengthen support not only with words, but also by increasing, for example, doubling the aid budget for Ukraine in Germany. That is, here now there is more war, who has the longest will. From us and our partners, or from the Russian Federation. I see, finally, that the European Union is waking up, and assistance will not only continue, but also increase,” says the head of the permanent delegation of Ukraine to the NATO Parliamentary Assembly.

At the same time, he noted that Russia should not be underestimated, because it has enough resources, primarily internal ones. They can afford closed cycles according to some nomenclature of the military-industrial complex without imports. But they still import through some third countries.

“Although our partners are slowly tightening these “nuts” so that the microcircuits do not fall into the territory of the Russian Federation and are not used in the missiles that are flying towards us. But this is also extremely difficult to do, because they use, for example, microcircuits from not even dual-use items, but from consumer electronics. And we record this. But I see the mood of our partners, and sanctions will increase and will further cut off oxygen to the Russian economy. And this should be the main focus. Without the economy, the Russian army will not have the opportunity to fight,” summed up Yegor Chernev.

Earlier, Chernev said that the stumbling block on Ukraine’s path to NATO is the political will of its partners. But for its part, Kyiv is working to be as prepared as possible for the moment when this political will appears, so that the Defense Forces and the army comply as much as possible with NATO principles and standards.

Poland completes search activities related to Russian missile

Poland completed an inspection involving nearly 500 soldiers of its Territorial Defence Forces at 15:00 on Saturday, 30 December. They were looking for possible wreckage of the missile that violated Polish airspace during Russia's large-scale missile attack on Ukrainian cities on 29 December.

• On Friday, 29 December, Poland's General Staff stated that a Russian missile had violated the country's airspace. The Polish military found that the missile flew 40 kilometres into Poland and returned to Ukraine three minutes later. 
  
  
• After that, the Russian Chargé d'Affaires was summoned to the Polish Foreign Ministry to give an explanation for the incident.
  
  
• The Russian diplomat said Moscow was not going to give an explanation for the Russian missile in Polish airspace until provided with "hard evidence".
  

Russian forces killed a man on his birthday, among other civilian casualties

Russian forces conducted shelling in Semenivka, Chernihiv Oblast, and Stepnohirsk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, resulting in the loss of three lives

About 8,400 trucks stuck in a queue on the western border of Ukraine

​Ukrainian partisans disable Russian equipment on left bank of Dnipro river

Partisans conducted sabotages on the second and third lines of defense of russian occupiers in Kherson Oblast

Those agents of the Atesh partisan movement, who serve in the 177th Naval Infantry Regiment, managed to stealthily disable russian combat equipment. This was reported on movement`s official Telegram channel.
They managed to neutralize two infantry fighting vehicles as well as one MT-LB tracked armored vehicle. After the malfunction was discovered, the occupiers had to tow the equipment to a repair base in the Dzhankoy area, where it will take them a lot of time to put the equipment back in service again.
According to the Atesh, its agents had sabotaged one of the invaders` operations by their actions.
"We plan to conduct similar actions along the entire front line," the Atesh reported.

The partisans also demonstrated a method that could incapacitate military equipment. The agents simply pour sand into the gas tank or engine of the military equipment, rendering it unusable.

https://twitter.com/atesh_eng/status/1740804878212235266?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1740804878212235266%7Ctwgr%5Eb14bed796b78fbc9f4d064f2a17899af1f914292%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fen.defence-ua.com%2Fl-media%2Faddarticles%2F

According to the Atesh, the method has been repeatedly utilized.

Furious Putin “orders commanders to frontline” after 74 sailors killed in Novocherkassk sinking

Rather than acknowledge his forces’ air defense failures, Putin chooses to sacrifice commanders, Atesh says

Charred submerged wreckage of a Russian warship can be seen in the port of occupied Feodosia in front of the port structures. Crimea, 26 December 2023. Photo: Telegram/Крымский Ветер резерв

Vladimir Putin was “in complete rage” over the destruction of the Novocherkassk landing ship and ordered the punishment of Crimea’s air defenses, partisan sources revealed.
The group Atesh, a Ukrainian partisan group that claims to include agents among Russia’s security services, said many commanders were expected to be dismissed and sent to “join assault groups on the frontline” in Ukraine, effectively eliminating them.
This followed the December 26 Ukrainian strike on the Novocherkassk in occupied Crimea which killed 74 sailors and injured 27 more, the Russian navy announced Friday.
Russia’s Black Sea Fleet commander Admiral Nikolai Yevmenov reportedly asked the mayor of Novocherkassk to declare two days of mourning.

The partisan sources stated Putin had issued “an order to punish Crimea’s air defense forces” over the loss of the warship. Atesh advised Russian servicemen wanting to avoid punishment to cite equipment malfunctions in maintenance logs, saying Russia could not intercept all Ukrainian missiles despite commander assurances otherwise.
Ukraine’s Air Force commander Lieutenant General Mykola Oleshchuk confirmed the warship was struck by cruise missiles launched from Su-24 aircraft before dawn on 26 December. The Ukrainian Air Force said that the ship was possibly loaded with Shahed explosive drones, which Russia uses in daily attacks on Ukrainian cities.
Photos later emerged showing the destroyed vessel with massive fragments scattered up to one kilometer away.

Fire in the port of Feodosia, occupied Crimea, in the early hours of 26 December 2023. Photo via Twitter/loogunda.

Atesh agents said repressions were “spinning up” in Crimea after the attack, with raids confiscating smartphones from residents to uncover “spotters” who enabled the strike.
Teams of operatives from Moscow were arriving to lead investigations by the FSB state security service, military counterintelligence, prosecutors, and various government agencies into the warship’s destruction.
The partisans stated Putin’s furious crackdown showed Russia’s inability to intercept Western-made missiles like Ukraine’s Storm Shadow cruise missile and would lead to military figures being accused of sabotage, despite commanders claiming otherwise.
By dismissing and essentially sacrificing these commanders, Putin aims to deflect responsibility from the failures of Russia’s own air defenses in occupied Crimea, Atesh claims.
This serves to find scapegoats for military failings, as “Putin’s wounded pride manifests in lashing out.” Unable to acknowledge his forces’ failures, “the Russian leader pursues an authoritarian reflex to crack down and eliminate commanders.”
Rather than address air defense weaknesses that allowed the missiles through, “Putin chose repression to cope with humiliation.”
Above all, Atesh reveals “the shifting fortunes of war expose Crimea as a battleground, shattering assumptions of it as an impenetrable Russian stronghold.”

Significance of Novocherkassk’s sinking

The Russian Defense Ministry itself confirmed the Novocherkassk was hit by Ukrainian missiles, validating Ukraine’s claims of responsibility.
Beyond Russia’s military embarrassment, the successful Ukrainian strike represents an important strategic gain by eliminating a major landing vessel.
The large Ivan Gren-class ship was capable of transporting and deploying 13 main battle tanks or 36 armored personnel carriers and 300 marines, as well as amphibious assault equipment.
Its loss not only deals a practical blow to Russia’s Black Sea Fleet transport and landing capabilities, but undermines morale and highlights the apparent impunity enjoyed by Russian forces in occupied Crimea since 2014 evaporating.
Nowhere in the peninsula annexed by Putin’s forces is safe any longer, with Ukrainian missiles able to strike targets previously seen as untouchable bastions like the headquarters of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol.
Novocherkassk became the 16th Russian ship to be destroyed or seriously damaged by Ukraine’s attacks since the Russian invasion of 2022.

What Russian Black Sea Fleet ships were destroyed by Ukraine

A game of Battleship is unfolding in the Black Sea, where navy-less Ukraine, left to its own resorts against Russia’s menacing fleet, takes out ships one by one with a combination of missiles, drones, and ingenuity