Russian invasion of Ukraine: Day 644

Summary for Wednesday, 29th November 2023 - DAY 644

• Marianna Budanova, the wife of Ukraine’s intelligence head, Kyrylo Budanov, was poisoned and received treatment in hospital, a Ukrainian military intelligence official confirmed. She fell ill reportedly after eating food laced with “heavy metals”.
  
  
• Russian shells struck homes on Tuesday, killing four people and injuring at least five, Ukrainian officials said. A five-storey building was hit in the southern town of Nikopol, said the Dnipropetrovsk region governor, Serhiy Lysak.
  
  
• Tornadoes were forecast for the Black Sea region after a storm that killed at least 14 people and left more than 2 million people without electricity in Russia and Ukraine including occupied Crimea.
  
  
• The Institute for the Study of War said the storm forced Russia to return all of its naval vessels and missile carriers to their bases, and suggested that the threat of mines drifting in the Black Sea would increase because the storm dispersed minefields.
  
  
• There were also reports that the storm damaged railways in coastal areas, which could have an impact on the Russian military’s logistics capabilities in occupied Crimea and southern Ukraine, the ISW said. The damage affected “the tempo of military operations along the frontline in Ukraine” but had not stopped them entirely.
  
  
• In an intelligence update, the UK’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) said Russia had made small advances on the northern axis of a pincer movement as part of an attempt to surround Avdiivka. “Although Avdiivka has become a salient or bulge in the Ukrainian frontline, Ukraine remains in control of a corridor of territory approximately 7km wide, through which it continues to supply the town.”
  
  
• The US Senate will begin considering legislation that includes aid for Israel and Ukraine as soon as next week, the leader of the Democratic majority, Chuck Schumer, said on Tuesday, adding that an aid bill was needed even if there was no agreement with Republicans, who demand linked funding for US border security.
  
  
• Ukraine, Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania said their foreign ministers would boycott a meeting of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) in North Macedonia on Thursday and Friday because the Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, intends to take part.
  
  
• Nato’s secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, urged members of the alliance to “stay the course” in supporting Ukraine in its war against Russia’s invasion. “It’s our obligation to ensure that we provide Ukraine with the weapons they need,” Stoltenberg said after arriving for a gathering of foreign ministers from Nato countries at its headquarters in Brussels.
  
  
• The EU has agreed to more than quadruple its spending on training Ukrainian soldiers, investing close to an extra €200m (£173m), AFP reported.
  
  
• Germany’s chancellor, Olaf Scholz, has said military and financial support for Ukraine is of “existential importance” to Europe. In a speech to parliament, he was quoted by AFP as saying: “We will continue with this support as long as it is necessary. This support is of existential importance. For Ukraine … but also for us in Europe. None of us want to imagine what even more serious consequences it would have for us if Putin won this war.”
  

Bad weather has slowed Russia’s campaign to secure eastern Ukraine and capture the town of Avdiivka, Ukrainian officials have said.

The Russian navy had kept two submarines with up to eight Kalibr missiles on combat duty in the Black Sea as of Tuesday evening

Ukraine says it repelled 21 out of 21 overnight drone attacks

Defence Forces advance on Zaporizhzhia front, analysts say

Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations west of Zaporizhzhia Oblast on 29 November and, as reported, have advanced.

Russian Major General blown up on landmine on Ukraine Front

A top Russian commander has reportedly died after being blown up by a landmine in Ukraine.

Russian Major General Vladimir Zavadsky's death was reported by Ukrainian military officer Colonel Anatoly Stefan.Stefan said in a post on his Telegram channel that Zavadsky, the deputy commander of the 14th Army Corps of the Russian Armed Forces, was killed on Tuesday, but added that further clarification on the cause of his death was needed. It isn't clear where in Ukraine he was reportedly killed.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1729615113450078213?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1729615113450078213%7Ctwgr%5E6e851cf9251949459ff71249bf429257e40c5946%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.newsweek.com%2Frussian-major-general-killed-ukraine-landmine-1847885

Newsweek couldn't immediately verify the report. Newsweek has contacted Russia's Defense Ministry via email for comment. Moscow rarely confirms reports about the deaths of its top commanders.
Kyiv's strikes throughout Russian President Vladimir Putin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine have reportedly eliminated key figures among the Kremlin's top brass. Moscow has lost a large number of top generals and commanders in the conflict.
In June, the BBC Russian Service and independent Russian news outlet MediaZona both reported that in the first month of Ukraine's counteroffensive, between June 4 and July 7, one Russian general, two colonels and three lieutenant colonels were killed in action.
Estimates of military casualties in the conflict vary widely, with figures provided by Ukraine usually outstripping those given by its Western allies. Russia rarely releases figures on its troop losses, but when it does, its estimates are far lower than those of Ukraine.
Zavadsky graduated from the Moscow Combined Arms Command School, 1st Battalion, in 2000. Nine years later, he graduated from the General Military Academy of the Russian Armed Forces.
He later served in the Russian military as deputy commander of a training tank regiment, deputy head of a training center, chief of staff of a motorized rifle brigade, commander of a motorized rifle brigade, and commander of a motorized rifle division.
Zavadsky was commander of the Kantemirovskaya Guards Tank Division, stationed in the Moscow region, from August 2018 to June 2021, and was deputy commander of the 14th Army Corps when he was reportedly killed.
Viktor Kovalenko, a former Ukrainian soldier and journalist, previously told Newsweek that for the Russian military, every loss of a top military officer creates a "temporary localized chaos" because their units "are not trained and even allowed to maneuver autonomously."

Five Russian officials killed in strike in Kherson, says Ukraine

Russian forces have taken control of a village in the east Ukrainian region of Donetsk

A man who used his finger to write “No To War” on a snow-covered turnstile outside a Moscow ice rink has been jailed for 10 days.

Russia ramping up attacks in Donetsk, says Ukraine

Russia fails in OPCW reelection bid

Ghost Ships Already Wreak Havoc​

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia has joined Iran and other pariah nations in using “ghost ships” to transport oil and other goods and bypass international sanctions.
Russia’s ghost fleet primarily consists of older vessels that have a higher risk of breaking down and being involved in accidents. Beyond the inherent risks of using older, run-down vessels, ghost ships also engage in risky behavior by turning off their Automatic Identification Systems (“AIS”) and spoofing their locations to conceal illegal activities. For months, maritime experts have been warning of these vessels’ potential to cause harm. Such accidents involving Russian and Iranian ghost ships are already occurring at a higher frequency than many realize. Smaller accidents often go unnoticed and unpunished. With around two thirds of Russian tankers being insured by unknown companies, accountability is difficult. As Russia has shifted its oil sales to be covered by the ghost fleet, which by some estimates consists of up to 650 vessels, more incidents can be expected. To tackle this challenge, the U.S. and its allies must either step up enforcement of current laws on third-party companies enabling ghost shipping or update existing sanctions to address the current realities of Russian shipping.

What is a “Ghost Ship”?

Ghost ship incidents are not making headlines, despite many predictions of the risks involved, because these ships are inherently difficult to identify and track. The U.S. and its allies sanctioned Russian shipping lines such as FESCO and Sovcomflot, but many subsidiary companies have sprung up in their place. Take for example Sun Ship Management Ltd. of Dubai. The company took over management of over 90 tankers that previously belonged to Sovcomflot, after sanctions were imposed. Despite denying its connection to Russia, Sun Ship was later sanctioned as a subsidiary of Sovcomflot.
However, sanctioning companies like Sun Ship is like playing whack-a-mole. When companies are exposed for their links to Russia, more subsidiaries spring up in their place. For example, an India-based company, Gatik Ship Management, emerged seemingly out of nowhere as a major shipper of Russian crude after war broke out in Ukraine. After attracting international scrutiny, it sold off its ships to a milieu of previously unheard of companies tangentially linked to Gatik. Since 2022, a shocking 864 maritime companies linked to Russia have been created.
The complicated web of ownership and the lack of a clear definition for what qualifies as a ghost ship has meant that, even when these ships are involved in accidents, the media often does not notice. There is no agreed upon definition for ghost ships, and their constant adaptation to sanctions makes them harder to identify. For example, though ghost ships are typically old vessels, some fleets have been taking in middle-aged vessels to avoid detection. Linking ships involved in accidents to ghost fleets is also inherently difficult as ships change flags often and are owned by shell companies, as was the case with Gatik’s fleet. Additionally, much of the conversation focuses on the actions of Russian and Iranian tankers, but their clandestine cargo shipping has also broken sanctions and led to accidents.
The American Enterprise Institute (“AEI”), a think tank in Washington D.C., cross-referenced reported incidents from KPLER’s FleetMon with ownership data from Equasis and Russian ship registries. AEI has identified over 40 incidents in 2023 that have a high likelihood of ghost ships being involved. These incidents range from engine failures and fires, to explosions and collisions. The ships involved in these incidents are owned by companies either directly linked to Iran and Russia or that are operating as subsidiaries, much like Gatik and Sun Ship. Only a handful of these incidents were highlighted in other comprehensive reports of ghost ship incidents.

Consequences of Ghost Shipping Incidents

Beyond their role in supporting Russia’s war machine, ghost ships are harming the environment and endangering crews. Take the example of one ghost ship, Pablo, which exploded off the coast of Indonesia in summer of 2023. Built in 1997, the ship was set to be sold as scrap five years ago before, instead, joining Iran’s shadow fleet. On May 1, 2023, the ship erupted in flames, [url=https://splash247.com/exclusive-satellite-images-of-wrecked-pablo-tanker-cast-dark-light-over-shadow-fleet/#:~:text=Fifty%2Done days since it,the so%2Dcalled dark fleet.]killing three[/url] crewmembers and seriously injuring four others. Following the wreck, oil washed up on the shores of Indonesia, and Indonesia experienced massive air pollution. Without a known insurer, Malaysian authorities were forced to deal with the incident. Had it been carrying its full capacity of 700,000 barrels of oil at the time of the accident, billions of dollars of environmental and economic damage could have occurred in the Malacca Strait, a high traffic shipping area home to [url=https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0025326X00001089#:~:text=The Straits are also rich,and valuable natural gas reserves.]extensive fisheries and productive coastal ecosystems. [/url] 
However, in many incidents, ghost ships mitigated the potential impact of the accidents. For example, the two ghost ships Mercury and Agnes, managed by Gatik Ship Management at the time of the incident, lost control of their vessels and were dragging their anchors in the Bay of Gibraltar. They were rescued by nearby tugs and prevented from causing harm to docked ships. The incident garnered little media attention, despite the ships’ clear link to the ghost shipping network.
Although the conversation around ghost ships is typically centered on tankers, cargo vessels linked to Russia have also been involved in a number of serious incidents. For instance, Russian-flagged cargo ferry Slavyanin collided with another ship in the Black Sea this month. In February 2023, Fesco Tatarstan, a 15 year-old Russian-flagged cargo ship, leaked methane and required a specialized crew to come clean up. Sergey Bodrov, a cargo ship belonging to Turkey’s Clan Ship Management, a company linked to Russian trade, nearly collided with Norwegian oil fields last month, after its engine failed. Regional coast guards stepped in to prevent catastrophe.
Despite improvements in safety for shipping over the past [url=https://www.freightwaves.com/news/fear-of-catastrophic-shipping-accidents-rises-even-as-safety-record-improves#:~:text=Strong gains in safety over,International Maritime Organization (IMO).]decade[/url], the risk of incidents from ghost ships has increased. To further improve safety in the maritime community, countries must address the various problems of ghost ships. Countries are beginning to crack down on ghost shipping by denying ghost ships entry to their ports or detaining them. EU [url=https://swzmaritime.nl/news/2023/06/30/eu-seeks-to-tackle-illegal-ship-to-ship-transfers-and-abuse-of-ais/#:~:text=In a new package of,banned from accessing EU ports.]sa[/url][url=https://swzmaritime.nl/news/2023/06/30/eu-seeks-to-tackle-illegal-ship-to-ship-transfers-and-abuse-of-ais/#:~:text=In a new package of,banned from accessing EU ports.]nctions[/url] outline that ships who turn off their AIS trackers while transporting Russian oil will be denied entry to their ports. Coast guards can play a role by seizing ships involved in illegal oil transfers, as the Indonesian coast guard did with Iranian tankers in July 2023. Stricter enforcement of such rules and the adoption of ghost ship related sanctions by more nations will improve maritime security.
Additionally, as more ships are exposed for being part of ghost fleets, they have lost their insurance coverage and are [url=https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/lloyds-register-drops-ships-top-indian-carrier-russian-oil-2023-05-25/#:~:text=LONDON%2FNEW DELHI%2C May 25,maritime services company told Reuters.]removed from registries[/url]. One avenue to adapt sanctions to meet the current problem would be to require vessels transiting various choke points such as the Gulf of Finland to show proof of insurance. Ghost ships, which are by nature difficult to insure, would be forced to take longer routes or upgrade their safety standards.
Ghost ships threaten maritime safety, harm the environment, blatantly subvert U.S. and E.U. sanctions, and allow Russian products to reach international markets and continue funding Russia’s war in Ukraine. Where there is money to be made, Russia, like Iran, will always try to circumvent sanctions. However, more action should be pursued to make U.S. partners, such as India and the United Arab Emirates where many of the ghost ship subsidiary companies are housed, think twice about if they want to be complicit in Russia’s shipping disasters.

EXPLAINED: The poisoning of Marianna Budanova and Russian media's bizarre theory

Russian state TV has suggested Kyrylo Budanov poisoned his own wife during a segment featuring a guest wanted for the poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko.

Marianna Budanova. Photo from open sources

Ukraine has said it believed Russia was behind a poisoning attempt on the wife of its military intelligence chief, in an apparent assassination attempt targeting the heart of Kyiv's leadership.

Marianna Budanova was reported ill in a hospital on Tuesday, with sources telling Kyiv Post she was targeted due to her marriage to Kyrylo Budanov.

Here’s everything we know so far…

Who is Marianna Budanova?

Thirty-year-old Budanova is an advisor to Kyiv mayor Vitali Klitschko and the wife of Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence (HUR) chief, Kyrylo Budanov.

HUR spokesperson Andriy Yusov said Ukrainian investigators are currently working on a “main hypothesis” that Russia was involved in the poisoning and Budanova was a target because “it is simply impossible to reach the commander directly.”

Budanov said in August his wife had been living with him “in his office” and had not left his side since the start of the full-scale invasion for security purposes.

Yusov told Kyiv Post: "According to the Law On Intelligence, the investigation is carried out by the DIU's own security department."

How was she poisoned?

Speaking on Ukrainian radio on Tuesday evening, Lieutenant General Valery Kondratyuk, head of the HUR from 2015−2016 said: “The poisoning occurred with heavy metals.
“During the tests, metals such as arsenic and mercury were found.”
Budanova’s condition deteriorated over some time, so it is currently believed her food was laced with non-lethal amounts of poison that built up in her system.

What is her current condition?

Budanova is being treated in the hospital but she is not thought to be in a life-threatening condition.
A source in Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence (HUR) told Kyiv Post: “She went to the doctor in time, if a week later, the consequences would be more severe.”

Were other people affected?

According to Kondratyuk, “several” other HUR employees were also affected including “heads of individual areas who are responsible for operations against Russia in the Main Directorate of Intelligence.”

Yusov confirmed to AFP that traces of heavy metals had been found in other employees but declined to say how many.
Their identities and conditions are also not currently known.

What has Russia said?

There’s been no official word from the Kremlin yet but Russian state media channels have reported on the poisoning with undisguised glee.
One talk show even invited Andrey Lugovoy on to discuss events, a man best-known for his role in the poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko in the UK in 2006.
While they claimed Russia could not have been involved in the poisoning of Budanov, host Olga Skabeeva smirked as she asked Lugovoy to describe how it could have happened “theoretically.”
She added: “Was something slipped into her tea and she drank it?”
Litvinenko died after radioactive poison was slipped into his tea.

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1729729950263959628?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1729729950263959628%7Ctwgr%5E556d862baedf758c4357cf219c676a5cf15b615a%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.kyivpost.com%2Fpost%2F24791

In another segment, a guest even suggested Budanov poisoned his own wife: “Why? It gets rid of an un-loved wife and it is an excellent propaganda that can be used in any situation.”
Russia has been accused of multiple poisoning attacks before, although the Kremlin has firmly denied the charges.

In 2018, a former Russian military intelligence officer convicted by Moscow of high treason was poisoned along with his daughter in the United Kingdom.
Assassinations are not unheard of in the Ukraine war. Several pro-Russian officials and supporters of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine have been assassinated since Russia launched its full-scale invasion on Ukraine last February.
Officials have said they have foiled “more than 10" assassination attempts against Budanov, a highly respected figure in Ukraine.
Budanov’s influential military intelligence unit is considered responsible for several sabotage attacks against Russia that have taken place behind the front lines.
Moscow has accused the HUR of being behind the October 2022 explosions on the Kerch bridge, which links Russia to the annexed Crimean Peninsula.

Closing Summary

• Russia is ramping up its attacks in the eastern Donetsk region, the Ukrainian military has said. Spokesperson Oleksandr Shtupun has “doubled its artillery fire and airstrikes” and had also “intensified ground infantry attacks”.
  
  
• Russia is also likely to have begun using more 500kg cluster munitions in Donetsk, according to the British intelligence. The Ministry of Defence said the munitions, which eject 100-350 submunitions over a wide area, were thought to have been deployed in a number of parts of the region.
  
  
• Russian forces claimed to have taken control of the village of Khromove in the same region. The village is on the western edge of Bakhmut, a city that fell to Russia over summer after a months-long battle and which remains the scene of heavy fighting.
  
  
• Russian casualties since the beginning of the war now stand at 327,580, according to the Ukrainian military. In its latest daily update, Ukraine’s general staff said the figure had increased by 1,140.
  
  
• Ukraine claimed to have killed five “high-ranking” Russian officials in a strike on a building in an occupied part of Kherson. The country’s armed forces said the strike had targeted a meeting in the village of Yuvileyne following “information provided by the underground and concerned local residents”.
  
  
• Ukraine said its air defences shot down 21 out of 21 Iranian-made Shahed drones headed for the western Khmelnytskyi region, home to a Ukrainian air base, overnight on Tuesday. Earlier this year, Ukraine called on its western allies to help strengthen its air defences to enable it to protect itself from Russian attacks on its infrastructure.
  
  
• The secretary general of Nato, Jens Stoltenberg, has warned that the bloc must not underestimate Russia and its ability to continue fighting the war in Ukraine. “Russia’s economy is on a war footing, Putin has a high tolerance for casualties, and Russian aims in Ukraine have not changed,” he said.
  
  
• The European Union has delivered about 300,000 of the 1m shells it has promised to Ukraine, the Ukrainian foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, has said. Kuleba said the demands of Ukraine’s war effort meant there was a need for greater alignment of Ukrainian and Nato arms production and to create “a Euro-Atlantic common area” of defence industries.
  
  
• Russia has failed in its bid to be re-elected to the executive council of the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons. Following a vote of the member states, Ukraine, Lithuania, and Poland were elected to fill the three seats from the Eastern Europe bloc that were set to come free for the 2024-2026 term.