Russian invasion of Ukraine: Day 652

Summary for Thursday, 7th December 2023 - DAY 652

• Republicans in the US Senate have blocked a supplemental funding bill that included financial aid for Ukraine. The vote increases the likelihood that Congress will fail to approve more funding for Ukraine before the end of the year, as the White House has warned that Kyiv is desperately in need of more aid.
  
  
• Before the vote, President Joe Biden pleaded with Republicans, warning that a victory for Russia over Ukraine would leave Moscow in position to attack Nato allies and could draw US troops into a war. “If [Russian President] Putin takes Ukraine, he won’t stop there,” Biden said. Putin would attack a Nato ally, he predicted, and then “we’ll have something that we don’t seek and that we don’t have today: American troops fighting Russian troops,” Biden said. “We can’t let Putin win,” he said.
  
  
• A former Ukrainian MP regarded by Kyiv as a traitor has been shot dead in a park in suburban Moscow, in an attack attributed to Ukraine’s SBU security service. Illia Kyva was a pro-Russian member of Ukraine’s parliament before Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, but fled to Russia a month before the start of the war and frequently criticised Ukrainian authorities online and on Russian state TV talkshows.
  
  
• European leaders are scrambling to rescue a plan to begin European Union accession negotiations for Ukraine, as Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orbán, vows to block the decision at a summit of EU leaders next week. Orbán, widely seen as the EU’s most pro-Russian leader, has said repeatedly that he will not support Ukraine’s path to accession at this point. On Monday, he sent a letter to Michel demanding to take the issue off the agenda at the leaders’ meeting next Thursday and Friday.
  
  
• A Russian-backed politician who served as a proxy lawmaker in Ukraine’s eastern Luhansk region was killed in a car bombing attack Wednesday, investigators said. Oleg Popov, who served as a deputy in the pro-Moscow Luhansk regional parliament, was killed after the “detonation of an unidentified device in a car”, Russia’s Investigative Committee said, without providing detail.
  
  
• The US has charged four Russian soldiers with war crimes after they allegedly abducted and tortured an American citizen last year who was living in southern Ukraine, according to court documents unsealed on Wednesday. The US justice department said the accused Russians kidnapped the American in April 2022 from his home in the village of Mylove, in Kherson province, where he lived with his Ukrainian wife.
  
  
• FBI agents tasked with investigating sanctions-busting have been sent to Cyprus as the global crackdown against Russian oligarchs, and the web of enablers who have helped hide their wealth, intensifies. American investigators will question how local lawyers and accountants helped shield Kremlin-linked business people from punitive EU measures following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, after last month’s publication of Cyprus Confidential, an investigation by the Guardian and international reporting partners, raised concerns about potential breaches.
  
  
• G7 leaders agreed to restrict imports of Russian diamonds from next year in a tightening of sanctions over Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. “We will introduce import restrictions on non-industrial diamonds, mined, processed, or produced in Russia, by 1 January 2024,” the leaders said in a statement after a virtual summit with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.
  
  
• Zelenskiy told the G7 leaders that Russia had ramped up pressure on the frontlines and warned Moscow was counting on western unity to “collapse” next year. “Russia hopes only for one thing – that next year the free world’s consolidation will collapse,” Zelenskiy said.
  
  
• Putin visited the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia in a lightning tour intended to raise Moscow’s profile as a Middle East power broker. It was his first trip to the region since he launched his invasion of Ukraine. Speaking at the start of his talks with the UAE president, Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Putin offered to discuss the “Ukrainian crisis”, among other subjects.
  

Russian drone attack on Odesa region damages grain infrastructure, kills one

Reuters has a little more detail:

It cites the regional governor saying that the drone attack lasted for more than two hours, and that while most were shot down, some got through and damaged a storage building, an elevator and trucks. As reported, a driver was killed during the attack.

Multiple overnight instances of cross-border fire into Russia from Ukraine at villages and settlements near the border

Warning: foreign students are advised to leave Russia urgently

We advise all foreign nationals who are studying at universities in Russia leave the country immediately, due to high risk of provocation, recruitment by Russian army with further sending to war in Ukraine.

Having carefully studied the personalities of prisoners of war – third country nationals, captured by Ukrainian army, we may say that Russia’s domestic intelligence, the FSB, recruits foreign students who study at Russian universities for contract service in Russian army, and then sends them to war in Ukraine. A Nepalese national who turned out to be a student at one of Moscow universities was captured in Ukraine in December 2023. Then, police in Nepal arrested 10 people suspected of illegal recruitment of Nepali people to join Russian army. Nearly 200 Nepali nationals are believed to be serving in the Russian army as mercenaries, Nepal’s ambassador to Moscow Milan Raj Tuladhar says.

https://twitter.com/ThomasVLinge/status/1731740514238534106?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1731740514238534106%7Ctwgr%5E9788b88cb28407e75ccd45ec18982d8349cff8fc%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Flansinginstitute.org%2F2023%2F12%2F07%2Fwarning-foreign-students-are-advised-to-leave-russia-urgently%2F

Nepal’s migration service claims that at least 1,729 Nepali nationals have gone to Russia on student and work visas since February 2022. That means Moscow also uses intelligence officers or recruited nationals who studied or worked in Russia to recruit foreign nationals. These people also recruit their own nationals who worked for the police or served in the army as potential mercenaries. Some sources in Africa suggest that employees of Russian diplomatic missions possibly recruit people who apply for visas or other papers.

Russian document of Nepalese fighter.

A human trafficking investigation is underway in Nepal. The suspects are accused of illegally collecting nine thousand dollars from unemployed young Nepali people and sending them to Russia on tourist visas. That way, recruitment for the Russian army looks like a criminal organization associated with human trafficking.

We cannot exclude that was a scheme by corrupt military intelligence officers (military attaches, probably) and FSB officers under diplomatic cover. We can neither refute nor confirm the hypothesis of Belarusian government involved in the same kind of activity, with the case of migrants, transferred to the Polish border, and a Somali national case, who was recruited to be sent to war in Ukraine, supporting it indirectly.

When these people came to Russia, they were recruited by the army. We believe, however, the FSB also recruits foreign students in Russia. The FSB agents in Russian universities, first of all, collect information on foreign nationals, their problems, and families. After that, intelligence officers make a recruitment proposal, based on the information collected. Money is the basis for recruitment in most cases. A Nepali national was recruited after saying his father was ill, needed emergency surgery and money for that. The Russians offered him contract military service to pay for his father’s operation.This scheme confirms our previous findings on the mechanism for recruiting Cuban nationals who studied in Russia, and were then also sent to the war in Ukraine after signing contracts. We believe the same scheme worked for the Serbs, who were also recruited by Russian army for contract service.

Eight residents of the Republic of Nepal who came to Russia in search of work . They crossed the Russian border on October 14, 2023 . In early November, while in Moscow, they signed a contract with the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, agreeing to take part in the Northern Military District. Then they were distributed to one of the units of the 58th Combined Arms Army of the Russian Federation (military unit 47084, North Ossetia). 1. Khadka Chetendra , born April 29, 1979, private, grenade launcher; 2. Adhikari Yubraj , born 10/06/1979, private, machine gunner; 3. Bishwakarma Lal Bahadur , born 05/08/1983, private, senior rifleman; 4. Bishwakarma Tilak Bahadur , born 08/05/1989, private, machine gunner; 5. Khadka Deepak , born July 26, 1998, private, grenade launcher; 6. Bhattarai Laxman , born July 26, 1982, private, machine gunner; 7. Pahadi Jagadish , born July 22, 1984, private, senior rifleman; 8. Rahapal Sushant Kumar , born June 17, 1992, private, rifleman. Source: Twitter.

There is documentary evidence that six Nepalese nationals serving in Russian army have already died at the front.
We believe that recruiting mercenaries for the war in Ukraine was a deliberate policy by the Kremlin, with Vladimir Putin’s decree on simplified procedure of obtaining citizenship for foreign nationals who took part in a “special military operation.”

These facts permit us to conclude that:

• Russia has faced the challenge of mobilizing its nationals and recruiting a contract army.

• High Russian casualties limit the willingness of Russian nationals to sign contracts for military service.

• Foreign mercenaries are becoming a priority for the Russians to recruit for the war in Ukraine.

• Russians prefer recruiting people from the poorest countries, as their maintenance cost is lower, and recruitment – simpler.

• With foreign nationals recruited, Russia’s budget has less financial burden, in case a soldier is injured or killed.

The Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation has said it will make a decision by 12 December on whether the four regions of Ukraine that the Russian Federation claimed to annex last year will take part in the 2024 Russian presidential election.

Having weighed all the pros and cons, we will make such a decision. If we accept it, then the next step will be to adopt the procedure for holding elections there; of course, it will be somewhat different, as the law provides for this, from voting in other constituent entities of the Russian Federation.

Four 'annexed' Ukraine regions expected to take part in Russian presidential election in March

Russia’s ministry of defence has released footage of what it claims is Russian paratroopers destroying “two radar stations and a mobile communications station” on the right bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson.

Imprisoned Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny in an online statement Thursday urged his supporters to vote for anyone but Putin in next year’s presidential election.

UK government accuses Russia's FSB of 'attempted cyber interference' in British politics and media

Speaking in the House of Commons in London, foreign office minister Leo Docherty has told UK lawmakers that a group linked to the Russian FSB has “selectively leaked and amplified the release of sensitive information”.

The UK summons Russian ambassador over cyber spying campaign

It has emerged that the former head of MI6, Richard Dearlove, is one of those who was targeted by the alleged Russian hacking.

 I have been through many more dramatic and worse things than being hacked. I was not particularly concerned about it. It is spot on from the government to stand up to it.
We are in a state of grey warfare with the Russians, short of open aggression and conflict. They will do anything to undermine critical infrastructure, national security, and attack any of our institutions that are not pro-Russia.
They have caused a huge amount of disruption. I had changed all my hardware, change emails, it was disruptive for a time.

UK deputy PM: 'appropriate sanctions have been levelled' against Russia over FSB cyber allegations

This group operated by FSB officers has also selectively leaked and amplified information designed to undermine trust in politics, both in the UK and in like-minded states. Russian representatives have been summoned to the Foreign Office this morning, and appropriate sanctions have been levelled.

Ukraine human rights commissioner: there are more than 19,540 officially confirmed deported Ukrainian children

Currently, there is a figure of more than 19,540 officially confirmed deported Ukrainian children. If we return one child every day, it will take us 55 years. And this is against the background of the Russian Federation continuing to deport more and more groups of Ukrainian children from our state every day. Unfortunately, we do not have many tools to return all Ukrainian deported children.

It is 2pm in Kyiv and in Moscow. Here is a summary of the latest headlines …

• The UK’s government has said it has levelled “appropriate sanctions” after summoning the Russian ambassador following accusations that groups linked to the Russian FSB had been hacking prominent British figures as part of attempts to “meddle in British politics”. UK deputy prime minister Oliver Dowden said Russia was “behind sustained hostile cyber operations aimed at interfering in parts of the UK democratic processes. This has included members of parliament, civils servants, thinktanks, journalists and NGOs”. The former head of the British Secret Intelligence Service, Sir Richard Dearlove, has confirmed he was one of the figures targeted.
  
  
• The human rights commissioner of Ukraine’s parliament has said that the officially confirmed number of Ukrainian children deported by Russia now stands at over 19,540. Speaking at a human rights conference in Kyiv, Dmytro Lubinets said “this is against the background of the Russian Federation continuing to deport more and more groups of Ukrainian children from our state every day”. In March, the international criminal court in The Hague issued arrest warrants for the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, and Russia’s commissioner for children’s rights, Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova, in relation to the forced deportation of children.
  
  
• Four occupied regions of Ukraine that were “annexed” by the Russian Federation in late 2022 are expected to participate in Russia’s presidential election next year, after the date was set for 17 March. Russia’s Federation council confirmed the date this morning, with Ella Pamfilova, head of the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation, saying a decision will be made by 12 December on whether occupied Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson will take part.
  
  
• Russia’s president Vladimir Putin has not yet announced whether he will run, however the 71-year-old is widely anticipated to secure a fifth term and remain in power until at least 2030. Imprisoned Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny in an online statement urged his supporters to vote for anyone but Putin, saying “Putin views this election as a referendum on approval of his actions. A referendum on approval of the war. Let’s disrupt his plans and make it happen so that no one on 17 March is interested in the rigged result, but that all of Russia saw and understood.”
  
  
• A driver was killed and grain infrastructure damaged by a Russian drone attack on Ukrainian grain infrastructure near the Danube River, the governor of Odesa region said on Thursday. Ukraine’s air force said 18 Shaheds were launched at the southern Odesa and Khmelnytskyi regions in western Ukraine. Fifteen were shot down.
  
  
• Republicans in the US Senate have blocked a supplemental funding bill that included financial aid for Ukraine. The vote increases the likelihood that Congress will fail to approve more funding for Ukraine before the end of the year, as the White House has warned that Kyiv is desperately in need of more aid.
  
  
• Before the vote, President Joe Biden pleaded with Republicans, warning that a victory for Russia over Ukraine would leave Moscow in position to attack Nato allies and could draw US troops into a war. “If [Russian President] Putin takes Ukraine, he won’t stop there,” Biden said. Putin would attack a Nato ally, he predicted, and then “we’ll have something that we don’t seek and that we don’t have today: American troops fighting Russian troops,” Biden said. “We can’t let Putin win,” he said. Russia’s ambassador to the US has described Biden’s words as “unacceptable”.
  
  
• Ukraine’s power grid operator Ukrenergo said on Thursday that cold weather had pushed power usage 2.7% above forecast levels, causing a deficit in the power system. It said the deficit was being filled by imports from Poland, Slovakia and Romania.
  

Ukraine aims to bypass a border blockade by Polish truck drivers by bringing in lorries on train platforms, Interfax Ukraine news agency has quoted an official from the national railways company as saying on Thursday.

Occupiers announce "evacuation" from Nova Kakhovka

The Russian occupiers are conducting so-called evacuation of the residents of the occupied settlement of Nova Kakhovka in Kherson Oblast.

Explosion in Russia’s Ryazan Oblast kills Rosgvardia soldier, injures two

Closing Summary

• The human rights commissioner of Ukraine’s parliament has said that the officially confirmed number of Ukrainian children deported by Russia now stands at over 19,540. Speaking at a human rights conference in Kyiv, Dmytro Lubinets said “this is against the background of the Russian Federation continuing to deport more and more groups of Ukrainian children from our state every day”. In March, the international criminal court in The Hague issued arrest warrants for the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, and Russia’s commissioner for children’s rights, Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova, in relation to the forced deportation of children.
  
  
• The UK’s government has said it has levelled “appropriate sanctions” after summoning the Russian ambassador following accusations that groups linked to the Russian FSB had been hacking prominent British figures as part of attempts to “meddle in British politics”. UK deputy prime minister Oliver Dowden said Russia was “behind sustained hostile cyber operations aimed at interfering in parts of the UK democratic processes. This has included members of parliament, civils servants, thinktanks, journalists and NGOs”. The former head of the British Secret Intelligence Service, Sir Richard Dearlove, has confirmed he was one of the figures targeted.
  
  
• Four occupied regions of Ukraine that were “annexed” by the Russian Federation in late 2022 are expected to participate in Russia’s presidential election next year, after the date was set for 17 March. Russia’s Federation council confirmed the date this morning, with Ella Pamfilova, head of the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation, saying a decision will be made by 12 December on whether occupied Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson will take part.
  
  
• Russia’s president Vladimir Putin has not yet announced whether he will run, however the 71-year-old is widely anticipated to secure a fifth term and remain in power until at least 2030. Imprisoned Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny in an online statement urged his supporters to vote for anyone but Putin, saying “Putin views this election as a referendum on approval of his actions. A referendum on approval of the war. Let’s disrupt his plans and make it happen so that no one on 17 March is interested in the rigged result, but that all of Russia saw and understood.”
  
  
• A driver was killed and grain infrastructure damaged by a Russian drone attack on Ukrainian grain infrastructure near the Danube River, the governor of Odesa region said on Thursday. Ukraine’s air force said 18 Shaheds were launched at the southern Odesa and Khmelnytskyi regions in western Ukraine. Fifteen were shot down.
  
  
• Hungary’s Viktor Orbán cannot be allowed to “blackmail” the rest of the EU by threatening to block Ukraine membership talks unless it releases withheld funds to Hungary, MEPs have said. “This is a make-or-break moment for the EU,” said Pedro Marques, vice-president of the Socialist and Democratic group that represents 142 MEPs. “It is a wake-up call for the leaders that we cannot continue allowing ourselves to be blackmailed by some authoritarian leader,” he added.
  
  
• Ukraine aims to bypass a border blockade by truck drivers in Poland by bringing in lorries on train platforms, an official from the national railways company said on Thursday.
  
  
• Ukraine’s power grid operator Ukrenergo said on Thursday that cold weather had pushed power usage 2.7% above forecast levels, causing a deficit in the power system. It said the deficit was being filled by imports from Poland, Slovakia and Romania.
  
  
• On Wednesday Republicans in the US Senate have blocked a supplemental funding bill that included financial aid for Ukraine. The vote increases the likelihood that Congress will fail to approve more funding for Ukraine before the end of the year, as the White House has warned that Kyiv is desperately in need of more aid.
  
  
• Before the vote, President Joe Biden pleaded with Republicans, warning that a victory for Russia over Ukraine would leave Moscow in position to attack Nato allies and could draw US troops into a war. “If [Russian President] Putin takes Ukraine, he won’t stop there,” Biden said. Putin would attack a Nato ally, he predicted, and then “we’ll have something that we don’t seek and that we don’t have today: American troops fighting Russian troops,” Biden said. “We can’t let Putin win,” he said. Russia’s ambassador to the US has described Biden’s words as “unacceptable”.