Russian invasion of Ukraine: Day 674

Summary for Friday, 29th December 2023 - DAY 674

Good morning

• Russia has launched a wave of missile strikes across Ukrainian cities, including the capital, authorities said as they raised a nationwide air alert. The Kharkiv mayor, Igor Terekhov, described the assault on Kharkiv as “a massive missile attack” while regional police reported 10 explosions and said the city had been hit with S-300 missiles. Explosions were reported in Kyiv, city mayor Vitali Klitschko said in a post on Telegram, and officials say a residential building and a warehouse were set on fire by falling debris.
  Missile attacks were also reported in Lviv in the country’s west and Odesa in the south as well as Sumy and Konotop.
  
  
• A Panama-flagged bulk carrier that was heading to the River Danube port to load grain hit a Russian mine in the Black Sea, injuring two crew members, Ukrainian officials said. The incident that took place on Wednesday was the latest instance of a civilian vessel hitting an explosive in the Black Sea.
  
  
• Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy thanked the US for releasing the last remaining package of weapons available for Ukraine under existing authorisation, as uncertainty surrounds further aid to Kyiv. “To defend freedom and security not only in Ukraine and Europe but also in the United States, we must continue to respond to ongoing Russian aggression,” he said on social media.
  
  
• A Moscow court sentenced two men to several years in prison for taking part in the recital of verses against the Ukraine campaign during an anti-mobilisation protest last year. Artyom Kamardin, 33, received a seven-year sentence for reciting a poem, and Yegor Shtovba, 23, was sentenced to five and a half years for attending the protest.
  
  
• Ukraine’s Airborne Assault Troops said that three servicemen who Ukrainian prosecutors have said were captured and shot dead by Russian forces this month were members of the 82nd Airborne Assault Brigade. Russia has yet to comment on the allegation, the second accusation that it has killed prisoners of war levelled against it this month by Ukrainian prosecutors. Footage shared on social media of the alleged incident appears to show three unarmed figures collapsing from a stationary position after being fired upon.
  
  
• Belarus’s authoritarian president attended a meeting with children brought from Russia-controlled areas of Ukraine, openly defying international outrage over his country’s involvement in Moscow’s deportation of Ukrainian children. Speaking at the event marking the arrival of a new group of Ukrainian children ahead of the New Year holiday, President Alexander Lukashenko vowed to “embrace these children, bring them to our home, keep them warm and make their childhood happier”.
  
  
• An investigation by the Associated Press newswire found that Russian occupation authorities vastly and deliberately undercounted the dead after the flooding that followed the catastrophic explosion that destroyed the Kakhovka Dam in the southern Kherson region in June. Russia said 59 people drowned in the territory it controls. But AP determined the number is at least 200 to 300 in one town alone.
  
  
• Ukraine and Hungary are preparing a meeting of Zelenskiy and prime minister Viktor Orbán in the near future, the Ukrainian president’s chief of staff said, amid recent steps by Hungary that have soured ties. Andriy Yermak said on X he had had a “productive phone call” with Hungarian foreign minister Peter Szijjarto and that they had also discussed Ukraine’s progress on its path to European integration.
  
  
• A fire broke out at a multi-story building in the Black Sea port city of Odesa late on Thursday after drones were reported to be headed for the area, authorities said. Oleh Kiper, the regional governor, said in a post on Telegram that information about casualties was being verified and urged townspeople to stay in shelters amid an ongoing drone attack.
  
  
• Shelling killed two civilians and wounded five others in a village on the banks of the frontline Dnipro river in southern Ukraine, local authorities said. “Russian armed forces carried out artillery shelling of the village of Bilenke of Zaporizhzhia Region,” Ukraine’s general prosecutor said.
  
  
• Zelenskiy said that Ukraine’s alternative Black Sea export corridor – introduced after Russia withdrew from a UN-brokered deal to guarantee safe shipment of Ukrainian grain in July – had sent out 12m tonnes of cargo so far. He added in his nightly video address that the corridor had produced “particularly significant results for December, and this is felt at the level of our entire economy.”
  
  
• Zelenskiy said he discussed Ukraine’s peace formula in a call with Pope Francis. “Over 80 countries are already involved in this process at the level of their representatives. And there will be more of them,” Zelenskiy said in a post on X.
  

Russia launched a wave of missile strikes on Friday across Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities, killing at least two people and wounding 18, officials said.

There are people killed by Russian missiles today that were launched at civilian facilities, civilian buildings.
We are doing everything to strengthen our air shield. But the world needs to see that we need more support and strength to stop this terror.

There are many wounded, the number is being clarified.

So far we have counted 22 strikes in different districts of Kharkiv.
There are currently seven injured in hospital. Unfortunately one person has died.

As a result of another enemy attack, one of the high-rise buildings was damaged. The fire was promptly extinguished.

Russian Losses in Ukraine are ‘Enormous,’ Says German General

Leaked US intelligence earlier this month indicated that 315,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded in Ukraine since the full-scale invasion began.

Russia’s human and materiel losses suffered during its full-scale invasion of Ukraine are “enormous” and its army will emerge from the war severely weakened, a German general has said.

In an interview published on Friday, Christian Freuding, who oversees the German army's support for Kyiv, told the Sueddeutsche Zeitung newspaper: “You know that according to Western intelligence figures, 300,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or so seriously wounded that they can no longer be mobilized for the war.
“The Russian losses of men and material are enormous,” said Freuding, who is also a key advisor to German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius.

Russia is also believed to have lost thousands of battle tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, he said, adding: “The Russian armed forces will emerge from this war weakened, both materially and in terms of personnel.”

Leaked US intelligence earlier this month indicated that 315,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded in Ukraine since the war began.

Freuding cautioned however that Russia is currently still recruiting new troops “including the use of prisoners,” and is making significant efforts to replace lost equipment, AFP reports.
“And, of course, we are seeing massive investments in the arms industry,” he said.
President Vladimir Putin recently said that Moscow had voluntarily recruited 486,000 men for the army in 2023 and that efforts to build up the military next year would accelerate.
And he promised to bolster Russia's defense capabilities, with the economy turned towards the war effort and the Kremlin shrugging off the impact of sweeping Western sanctions.
Freuding acknowledged that Russia was demonstrating a greater “resilience” than Western allies had expected at the start of the war.
“We perhaps did not see, or did not want to see, that they are in a position to continue to be supplied by allies,” he said.

Russian overnight attack: ‘We’ve never seen so many targets on our monitor at the same time’

Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Ukraine’s president, has posted on X saying that “Russian terror must and will lose” following a night of missile strikes.

Unfortunately, there have been fatalities and injuries as a result of the strikes. All services are working around the clock and providing the necessary aid. My condolences to those who have lost their loved ones. I wish a speedy recovery to those injured.

ISW reports on advance of Ukrainian troops near Bakhmut

Ukrainian forces have advanced near Bakhmut and continued positional fighting with Russian troops over the past week.

• The New York Times (NYT) published an op-ed by a member of its editorial board calling for Ukraine to engage in negotiations with and cede territory to Russia after reports emerged that Russian President Vladimir Putin is using backchannels and intermediaries to signal his interest in a ceasefire. The op-ed largely ignores near-constant Kremlin public signaling of Russia’s continued maximalist goals in Ukraine.
  
  
• Russia has officially deployed a battalion formed of Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) to the frontline in Ukraine, further confirming a myriad of apparent Russian violations of the Geneva Convention on POWs.
  
  
• Recent incidents of apparent Russian violations of the Geneva Convention on POWs likely implicate elements of the now notorious 76th Guards Air Assault (VDV) Division in the abuse of POWs.
  
  
• The Russian military command will reportedly disband the Kaskad operational combat tactical formation of the Donetsk People’s Republic’s (DNR) Internal Affairs Ministry (MVD) by 31 December 2023, likely as part of Russia's ongoing force formalization campaign.
  
  
• Ukrainian military officials revealed that Russian forces launched about 7,400 missiles and 3,900 Shahed drone strikes against Ukraine since launching the full-scale invasion.
  
  
• Russian mines continue to threaten civilian vessels in the Black Sea but will likely not deter civilian vessel usage of the Black Sea Humanitarian Corridor.
  
  
• The US Department of Defense (DoD) announced a US$250 million security assistance package for Ukraine on 27 December.
  
  
• Imprisoned Russian ultranationalist and former Russian officer Igor Girkin acknowledged the end of his presidential campaign after failing to register with the Russian Central Elections Committee (CEC) on 27 December.
  
  
• The Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) rewarded prominent Russian milbloggers for their contribution to the "military-patriotic" and "military-political" sphere, mirroring previous Kremlin efforts to pander to and co-opt to the wider Russian milblogger community.
  
  
• Ukrainian forces made a confirmed advance near Bakhmut, likely within the past week.
  
  
• Russian forces made confirmed advances northwest of Avdiivka, near Marinka, and south of Huliaipole.
  
  
• The Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) announced on 28 December that Russia has over 640,000 contract servicemen (kontraktniki), the first Russian announcement about the number of kontraktniki in the Russian Armed Forces since the start of the full-scale invasion.
  
  
• Russian occupation officials continue to deport Ukrainian children to Russia under the guise of medical necessity, despite an apparently growing number of cases of highly infectious diseases being transmitted among Ukrainian children en route to Russia.
  

Putin unleashes massive revenge attack on Ukraine 'hitting maternity hospital' after humiliating destruction of warship

Vladimir Putin has unleashed a massive air raid on Ukraine, killing twelve people and wounding dozens more after his humiliating loss of a warship.

Some of the latest images coming out of Ukraine on the news wires:

Russia launched 158 aerial targets over Ukraine, Air Defense Forces shot down 87 cruise missiles and 27 attack UAVs – Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhnyi

The forces and means of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in cooperation with units of the Defense Forces of Ukraine, destroyed 27 enemy Shahed-136/131 strike UAVs and 87 X-101/X-555/X-55 cruise missiles, Ukrinform reports.

This was reported by the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valerii Zaluzhnyi.
According to him, the enemy launched a massive missile attack on Ukraine at night. Critical infrastructure, industrial and military facilities were attacked. There are dead and injured.

At first, the invaders traditionally attacked with Shahed drones from the north and southeast, with further movement in the western direction. A total of 36 Shahed-136/131 attack UAVs were spotted, Zaluzhnyi noted.

Around 3:00, the enemy launched strategic aviation – Tu-95MS bombers. In total, 18 aircraft reached the launch line around 6:00 and launched at least 90 X-101/X-555/X-55 air-launched cruise missiles.

From the Kursk region, at about 5:00, the Russians used Tu-22M3 long-range bombers to launch eight X-22/X-32 cruise missiles in the direction of the northern and central regions.

At the same time, the enemy attacked Kharkiv with S-300 anti-aircraft guided missiles. In total, they fired at least 14 missiles flying along the ballistic trajectory – S-300/S-400/Iskander-M from the temporarily occupied Crimea, Kursk and Belgorod regions of the Russian Federation.

At 6:30 a.m., five MiG-31K fighter jets took off and launched five X-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles from the Astrakhan region of the Russian Federation.

The Russians also used four X-31P and one X-59 anti-aircraft missiles from Su-35 tactical aircraft.
According to preliminary results, last night, Russian troops used 158 air attack weapons against Ukraine: missiles of various types and strike UAVs.

The forces and means of the Air Force, in cooperation with the units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, destroyed 27 Shahed-136/131 strike UAVs and 87 X-101/X-555/X-55 cruise missiles.

The British prime minister has posted his support for Ukraine on social media following the wave of Russian missile strikes overnight.

“These widespread attacks on Ukraine’s cities show Putin will stop at nothing to achieve his aim of eradicating freedom and democracy.”

Poland says 'everything indicates' a Russian missile briefly entered its airspace on Friday morning

Everything indicates that a Russian missile intruded in Poland’s airspace. It was monitored by us on radars and left the airspace. We have confirmation of this on radars and from allies [in Nato].

As a result of such massive attacks, this can happen. The enemy is attacking our border territories, including in the west. This is another signal for our partners to strengthen the Ukrainian air defence.

Kyiv's Lukianivska metro station damaged in Russia’s largest missile attack of the war

Closing Summary

• Poland’s defence forces said an unknown object entered the country’s airspace Friday morning from the direction of Ukraine and then vanished off radars, and that all indications pointed to it being a Russian missile. There was no comment from Russian officials.
  
  
• 18 Ukrainian civilians are known to have died, and another 132 are injured, following a wave of Russian missile attacks. Rescue operations are still ongoing in the cities. In total, the Russian Federation launched 158 aerial targets over Ukraine – air defence forces shot down 27 drones and 87 cruise missiles.
  
  
• Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said the Kremlin’s forces used a wide variety of weapons, including ballistic and cruise missiles. He posted on X saying that “Russian terror must and will lose” following a night of missile strikes.
  
  
• Ukrainian air force spokesman Yuriy Ihnat said Russia “apparently launched everything they have” against targets across Ukraine.
  
  
• The British prime minister has posted his support for Ukraine on social media following the wave of Russian missile strikes overnight. Rishi Sunak said: “These widespread attacks on Ukraine’s cities show Putin will stop at nothing to achieve his aim of eradicating freedom and democracy.”
  
  
• Ukrainian officials have urged the country’s western allies to provide it with more air defences to protect itself against aerial attacks like Friday’s one. Their appeals have come as signs of war fatigue strain efforts to keep support in place.
  
  
• Russia has suffered huge human and material losses in Ukraine and its army will emerge weakened from the conflict, a senior German military figure said in an interview published on Friday. He said: “The Russian armed forces will emerge from this war weakened, both materially and in terms of personnel.”