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Horizon: how we make decisions

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Umberto Cocopop
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Horizon: how we make decisions

Post by Umberto Cocopop on Thu 27 Feb 2014 - 8:06

Hello everyone!

Did anyone see Horizon this week?

It's about how we make decisions. It's the area of cognitive psychology I'm into. It's largely about cognitive biases and how we make mistakes in reasoning.

Here's the link to it on iPlayer:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b03wyr3c/Horizon_20132014_How_You_Really_Make_Decisions/

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Kitkat
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Re: Horizon: how we make decisions

Post by Kitkat on Thu 27 Feb 2014 - 12:23

Hi Umberto,

I usually enjoy the Horizon programmes and in fact did have that episode earmarked to watch - but some distraction arose, so never got to see it.  Thanks for the link.  :thumb:   Will have a look at it later today.

By the way .........

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Umberto Cocopop
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Re: Horizon: how we make decisions

Post by Umberto Cocopop on Thu 27 Feb 2014 - 15:51

I'd forgotten about this forum until I stumbled across it yesterday. My login details were still stored in my browser so here I am.

Whoopee! I here everyone cheer...

Or was it someone throwing up?  giggle
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lar-lar
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Re: Horizon: how we make decisions

Post by lar-lar on Fri 28 Feb 2014 - 0:29

I knew it was on and was waiting for my quiet coming w/end to watch it. I've really been looking forward to it so I'll let you know what I think soon.

I've missed you
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Kitkat
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Re: Horizon: how we make decisions

Post by Kitkat on Fri 28 Feb 2014 - 13:28

Conclusions:

- New York cabbies are a bit slow (to put it politely).  London's black cabbies would knock spots off 'em.  

- Ask the farmer/librarian question in Ireland ... you know you would get a different popular answer.


I've read about these two psychologist guys before ... (Kahneman and Tversky).  Their research is limited.  Results of their various studies may be accurate, for instance, throughout the US, or possibly Europe, but if their investigations were to travel further afield - taking in different cultures, different environments, their results would conflict in many areas.  NONE of their studies have done so.

I do remember having read a study by someone else, who took the studies of these guys into account and compared them with their own studies and research, which DID cover other cultures - and found to their own actual surprise, that there were many contradictions, depending on environment, culture, traditions, etc.  I may even have saved it somewhere ... will have a lookout and bring it up here.  

An interesting study .... but [as with most] it IS from a limited perspective.
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Re: Horizon: how we make decisions

Post by Kitkat on Fri 28 Feb 2014 - 13:48

Just having done a quick search, I've come across this: http://www.investopedia.com/university/behavioral_finance/behavioral2.asp

Critics

Although behavioral finance has been gaining support in recent years, it is not without its critics. Some supporters of the efficient market hypothesis, for example, are vocal critics of behavioral finance.

The efficient market hypothesis is considered one of the foundations of modern financial theory. However, the hypothesis does not account for irrationality because it assumes that the market price of a security reflects the impact of all relevant information as it is released.

The most notable critic of behavioral finance is Eugene Fama, the founder of market efficiency theory. Professor Fama suggests that even though there are some anomalies that cannot be explained by modern financial theory, market efficiency should not be totally abandoned in favor of behavioral finance.

In fact, he notes that many of the anomalies found in conventional theories could be considered shorter-term chance events that are eventually corrected over time. In his 1998 paper, entitled "Market Efficiency, Long-Term Returns And Behavioral Finance", Fama argues that many of the findings in behavioral finance appear to contradict each other, and that all in all, behavioral finance itself appears to be a collection of anomalies that can be explained by market efficiency.

Yes, this is the guy I've been thinking about - Eugene Fama. I have definitely saved something, somewhere, associated with this guy. Will look it up.
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Umberto Cocopop
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Re: Horizon: how we make decisions

Post by Umberto Cocopop on Fri 28 Feb 2014 - 18:21

@KitKat wrote:I've read about these two psychologist guys before ... (Kahneman and Tversky).  Their research is limited.  

Bill Gates' wealth is limited.

@KitKat wrote:Results of their various studies may be accurate, for instance, throughout the US, or possibly Europe, but if their investigations were to travel further afield - taking in different cultures, different environments, their results would conflict in many areas.  NONE of their studies have done so..

Cultural specificity is nothing new to psychology studies.

Their research into what became known as 'heuristics and biases' began in the early '70s and is pretty much universally accepted.

If you don't want to accept it, then there's little to discuss.
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Kitkat
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Re: Horizon: how we make decisions

Post by Kitkat on Fri 28 Feb 2014 - 18:48

@Umberto Cocopop wrote:If you don't want to accept it, then there's little to discuss.

What makes you think I "don't want to accept it"?  Huh?  There's a whole heap to discuss here - and proper discussion should include any criticisms, don't you think? NOT that I am criticising the study as such either ... but it's also limited (yes!) to a certain extent in that this study is essentially geared around the business world, commercial enterprise and the sort of decisions that are involved there, rather than yer everyday sort of decision. It doesn't necessarily explain the whys and wherefors surrounding why I would decide to choose a Snickers over a Mars bar.
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Kitkat
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Re: Horizon: how we make decisions

Post by Kitkat on Sun 2 Mar 2014 - 3:03

Quite an interesting little list to sift through:

Decision-Making

Chocolate or strawberry? Life or death? We make tons of quick decisions unconsciously; others we hem and haw over in agony. We choose actions and form opinions via mental processes which are influenced by biases, reason, emotions, and memories. Some question whether we really even have free will; others believe it is well within our power to make choices that will lead to greater well-being. Here's a reading list to tackle while you're on that fence.


Choose Wisely

Adolescence and the Agony of Decision Making
There are good reasons why it's hard for adolescents to make up their mind

Is Raising Good Decision Makers Parents' Greatest Challenge?
Children making bad decisions in the digital world can ruin their lives.

What Is Your Momentum Factor?
You have 35 chances to change everything, every day.

Making Important Decisions When Sleepy Like Rolling Dice
How sleep helps us make better decisions

Comparison Creates Confidence
Comparing options makes you confident in your choice.

Gut Almighty
When to trust your gut—and when to think twice.

Major Choice Strategies
Ways to decide, from the simple to the complex

Emotions, Decision Making, and Procrastination
Manage emotions that trigger procrastination decisions. See how now.

Choking on Choice?
How to be satisfied with your decisions.

Imagining Other People's Choices Clarifies Your Own
A strategy for simplifying complex decisions.

See Also

   Behavioral Economics
   Bias
   Cognition
   Cognitive Dissonance
   Consumer Behavior
   Free Will
   Wisdom

_________________________________________________
http://www.psychologytoday.com/basics/decision-making

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